Deterioration of steel structures due to corrosion considering the global effects of climate change

Abstract

The randomness of atmospheric conditions is among the key contributing factors that affect the ability to accurately predict the corrosion growth in steel structures. Climate change has the potential to alter the long-term characteristics of these factors over the lifespan of steel structures, both those already existing and those newly built. The impact of climate variability on the stochastic nature of atmospheric variables, which greatly influence corrosion conditions, can add complexity to corrosion predictions in these structures. This paper introduces an integrated framework to quantify the impact of climate change on corrosion rates of steel structures worldwide. It considers the changes in environmental conditions, specifically temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and their effects on atmospheric corrosion. Global Climate Models are employed to evaluate the long-term impacts of climate change on these environmental conditions. An analytical model for predicting corrosion rate is integrated with climate change models to predict alterations in the corrosion rates of steel components relative to historical conditions. This paper also discusses the impact of climate change on the variations of these climatic parameters and offers a comparison between historical data and projected conditions across the globe. The results indicate that the effect of climate change on the corrosion rate depends on the considered region. While regions such as Australia, North America and Europe see an increase, others such as Asia and Africa observe a decline. Notably, all oceans, especially the Antarctic and Arctic, experience a significant increase in corrosion by the end of the century.