Trajectories of delinquency among young adult prisoners

Abstract

Using latent class growth analysis, this prospective longitudinal study aimed to identify different trajectories of delinquency among prisoners (N = 2352) of youth correctional facilities. Criminal behaviour was monitored with crime register data on individuals from ages 14 to 25. Analyses revealed four developmental pathways: early- and late-starting desisters (31.8 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively) and early- and late-starting persisters (21.2 percent and 41.8 percent, respectively). The effects of potential risk and protective factors from multiple domains (individual, family, peer and social factors) were analysed with analyses of variance and χ² tests for each of the distinct trajectory groups. The quantity of risk factors was higher throughout the observation period in the persisting groups. Cumulative disadvantages could often be found in the persistent trajectories when low social bonds and low commitment to social norms persisted until (early) adulthood. Similarly, higher social capital and social competencies were more prevalent among offenders who desisted from crime, regardless of the severity of their offences committed as adolescents.