Near-repeat burglary patterns in Malmö: Stability and change over time

Abstract

It is well established that previous crime events are valuable indicators for the prediction of future crime. Near-repeat burglaries are incidents that occur in close proximity in space and time to an initial burglary. The current study analyses near-repeat victimization patterns in Malmö, Sweden’s third-largest city. The data, provided by the local police, cover a six-year time frame from 2009 to 2014. The complete dataset, as well as each year’s individual dataset, was analysed using Ratcliffe’s Near Repeat Calculator version 1.3. Results reveal significant near-repeat victimization patterns. For the full dataset, an observed/expected ratio of 2.83 was identified for the first week after an initial incident and an area of 100 metres surrounding the original burglary. Separate analyses of each individual year reveal both similarities and differences between years. Some years manifest near-repeat patterns at longer spatial and temporal distances, indicating a need for further studies on the variability of near repeats. Preventive strategies that include both private and public actors need to be intensified and focused on the first two weeks after a burglary.