Hull girder reliability assessment of the MSC Napoli at the time of accident is presented. Loads considered in the study are still water bending moments, vertical wave bending moments and whipping bending moments, while structural capacity is represented by the hull girder ultimate strength. Load combination between wave and whipping bending moments is considered. The probability of failure is calculated using a first-order reliability method. Sensitivity study is performed in order to investigate influence of the pertinent random variables. The uncertainty model of the basic random variables involved is consistent with the recent proposal by the International Maritime Organization, thus enabling direct comparison of the obtained results with reliability levels proposed by International Maritime Organization.
StorhaugG. The 4400TEU container vessel MSC Napoli broke its back, but did whipping contribute. In: Proceedings of conference on hydroelasticity in marine technology, Southampton, 8–10 September 2009, pp.251–269. Southampton: University of Southampton.
2.
MiaoSHTemarelP. Application of 2D hydroelasticity theory to investigate the failure of a container ship. In: Proceedings of conference on hydroelasticity in marine technology, Southampton, 8–10 September 2009, pp.245–254. Southampton: University of Southampton.
3.
KohTJPaikJKKimBJ. Structural failure assessment of the engine room region for post-Panamax class container ship: lessons learned from the MSC Napoli accident. In: Proceedings of the 29th conference on ocean, offshore and Arctic engineering, Shanghai, China, 6–11 June 2010, paper no. OMAE2010-20996, pp.967–980. New York: ASME.
4.
Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB). Report on the investigation of the structural failure of MSC Napoli. Report no. 9, 22April2008. Southampton: MAIB.
5.
International Maritime Organization (IMO). Goal-based new ship construction standards. MSC 81/INF.6, February2006. London: IMO.
6.
KitarovicSAndricJZanicV. Extended IACS incremental-iterative method for calculation of hull girder ultimate strength in analysis and design. In: Proceedings of international workshop—advanced ship design for pollution prevention (eds CGSoaresJParunov), Split, 23–24November2009, pp.103–112. London: Taylor & Francis.
7.
PedersenTPJensenJJ. Estimation of hull girder vertical bending moments including non-linear and flexibility effects using closed form expressions. J Eng Mar Environ2009; 223: 377–390.
8.
TeixeiraAPParunovJGuedes SoaresC. Assessment of ship structural reliability. In: Guedes SoaresCGarbatovYFonsecaN. (eds) Marine technology and engineering. London: Taylor & Francis, 2011, pp.1377–1394.
9.
ParunovJGuedes SoaresC. Effects of common structural rules on hull-girder reliability of an Aframax oil tanker. Reliab Eng Syst Saf2008; 93(9): 1317–1327.
10.
ParunovJSenjanovicIGuedes SoaresC. Hull-girder reliability of new generation oil tankers. Mar Struct2007; 20(1–2): 49–70.
11.
Guedes SoaresCTeixeiraAP. Structural reliability of two bulk carrier designs. Mar Struct2000; 13: 107–128.
12.
ParunovJMagePGuedes SoaresC. Hull girder reliability of an aged oil tanker. In: Proceedings of the 27th international conference on offshore mechanics and Arctic engineering, Estoril, 15–20 June 2008, paper no. OMAE2008-57183. New York: ASME.
13.
PaikJKFaulknerD. Reassessment of the MV Derbyshire sinking with the focus on hull-girder collapse. Mar Technol2003; 40(4): 258–269.
14.
FaulknerD. An independent assessment of the sinking of the MV Derbyshire. SNAME Trans1998; 106: 59–103.
15.
OstergaardC. Partial safety factors for vertical bending loads on container ships. In: Proceedings of the 10th international conference on offshore mechanics and Arctic engineering, Stavanger, 23–28 June 1991. New York: ASME.
16.
MansourAEWirschingPHLucketMD. Structural safety of ships. SNAME Trans1997; 105: 61–98.
17.
MoanTShuZDrummenI. Comparative reliability analysis of ships—considering different ship types and the effect of ship operations on loads. SNAME Trans2006; 114: 16–54.
18.
PeschmannJSchiffCWolfV. Structural reliability of the ultimate hull girder strength of a PANAMAX container ship. In: Analysis and Design of Marine Structures: Proceedings of Marstruct 2009, the 2nd International Conference on Marine Structures (eds Guedes SoaresCDasPK), Lisbon, 16–18 March 2009, pp.503–511. London: Taylor & Francis.
Bureau Veritas (BV). MSC Napoli—ultimate strength analysis. NT 2995/DR, ATA:1234A, 28January2008.
24.
Det Norske Veritas (DNV). MSC Napoli—load and strength assessments of 18 January 2007 incident. Report no. 2007-1928, 18January2007. Høvik: Det Norske Veritas.
25.
Bureau Veritas (BV). User’s manual, HydroSTAR, 2006.
26.
University of Zagreb. Program manual, DYANA, 2007.
27.
MansourAEWirschigPLucketM. Assessment of reliability of ship structures. SSC-398, 30April1997. Washington, DC: Ship Structure Committee.
28.
JensenJJMansourAE. Estimation of ship long-term wave-induced bending moment using closed-form expressions. RINA Trans2002; 41–55.
29.
PetricicMMansourAE. Long-term correlation structure of wave loads using simulation. Mar Struct2011; 24(2): 97–116.
30.
Det Norske Veritas (DNV). Proban theory—general purpose probabilistic analysis program. User’s manual, SESAM, 2002.
31.
PaikJKThayamballiAKCheJS. Ultimate strength of ship hulls under combined vertical bending, horizontal bending and shearing forces. SNAME Trans1996; 104: 31–59.
32.
Guedes SoaresC. On the definition of rule requirements for wave induced vertical bending moments. Mar Struct1996; 9: 409–425.
33.
MansourAEWassonJ-P. Charts for estimating nonlinear hogging and sagging bending moments. J Ship Res1995; 39(3): 240–249.
34.
ParunovJSenjanovicI. Incorporating model uncertainty in ship reliability analysis. SNAME Trans2003; 111: 377–408.
35.
DerbanneQde HauteclocqueGMienahouT. Non linearity of extreme vertical bending moment discussion on the existing rule formulation. In: Proceedings of the 32nd international conference on ocean, offshore and Arctic engineering, Nantes, 9–14 June 2013, paper no. OMAE2013-1159. New York: ASME.
36.
Bitner-GregersenEMCramerEHLøsethR. Uncertainties of load characteristics and fatigue damage of ship structures. Mar Struct1995; 8: 97–117.
37.
TuitmanJ. Hydro-elastic response of ship structures to slamming induced whipping. PhD Thesis, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, Delft Technical University, Delft, 2010.
38.
SengSAndersonIMVJensenJJ. On the influence of hull girder flexibility on the wave induced bending moments. In: 6th international conference on hydroelasticity in marine technology, Tokyo, Japan, 19–21 September 2012. Tokyo, Japan: University of Tokyo Press.
39.
MansourAEWirschingPH. Sensitivity factors and their application to marine structures. Mar Struct1995; 8: 229–255.
40.
LeeYWhiteNWangZ. Whipping responses and whipping effects on design bending moments of a large container ship. In: 6th international conference on hydroelasticity in marine technology, Tokyo, Japan, 19–21 September 2012. Tokyo, Japan: University of Tokyo Press.
41.
American Bureau of Shipping. Guidance notes on whipping assessment for container carriers. Houston, TX: American Bureau of Shipping, 2010.
