We analyse annual northern and southern hemisphere temperature data from 1856 to 1998
using models that contain either stochastic linear trends or deterministic
non-linear trends. We find that changes in southern hemisphere temperatures lead to
changes in northern hemisphere temperatures, with no evidence of feedback, in both
types of model. Where the models differ is that the assumption of stochastic linear
trends leads to a common trend with constant growth throughout the sample period,
whereas with deterministic non-linear trends there are divergent trend growth paths
in the two hemispheres after the early part of the twentieth century.
Bacon DW
,
Watts DG
(1971)
Estimating the transition between two intersecting straight lines
. Biometrika58,
525-534
.
2.
Bloomfield P
,
Nychka D
(1992)
Climate spectra and detecting climate change
. Climatic Change21,
275-287
.
3.
Dickey DA
,
Fuller WA
(1979)
Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root
. Journal of the American Statistical Association74,
427-431
.
4.
Galbraith JW
,
Green C
(1992)
Inference about trends in global temperature data
. Climatic Change22,
209-221
.
5.
Hansen J
,
Lebedeff S
(1987)
Global trends of measured surface air temperature
. Journal of Geophysical Research92,
13345-13372
.
6.
Harvey DI
,
Mills TC
(2001)
Unit roots and double smooth transitions
. Journal of Applied Statistics (in press).
7.
Johansen S
(1995) Likelihood based inference in cointegrated vector
autoregressive models.
Oxford: Oxford University Press
.
8.
Jones PD
(1994)
Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: a reanalysis and an update
to 1993
. Journal of Climate7,
1793-1802
.
9.
Koenker R
,
Schorfheide F
(1994)
Quantile spline models for global temperature change
. Climatic Change28,
395-404
.
10.
Leybourne SJ
,
Newbold P
,
Vougas D
(1998)
Unit roots and smooth transitions
. Journal of Time Series Analysis19,
83-97
.
11.
Lin CJ
,
Terasvirta T
(1994)
Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous
structural change
. Journal of Econometrics62,
211-228
.
12.
Mills TC
(1999) The econometric modelling of financial time
series, 2nd ed.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
.
13.
Ng S
,
Perron P
(1995)
Unit root tests in ARMA models with data-dependent methods for the
selection of the truncation lag
. Journal of the American Statistical Association90,
268-281
.
14.
Parker DE
,
Jones PD
,
Bevan A
,
Folland CK
(1994)
Interdecadal changes of surface air temperature since the late 19th century
. Journal of Geophysical Research99,
1473-1499
.
15.
Parker DE
,
Folland CK
,
Jackson M
(1995)
Marine surface temperature: observed variations and data requirements
. Climatic Change31,
559-600
.
16.
Perron P
(1989)
The Great Crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis
. Econometrica57,
1361-1401
.
17.
Phillips PCB
(2001)
Trending time series and macroeconomic activity: some present and future challenges
. Journal of Econometrics100,
21-27
.
18.
Phillips PCB
,
Xiao Z
(1998)
A primer on unit root testing
. Journal of Economic Surveys12,
423-469
.
19.
Saikkonen P
(2001a)
Consistent estimation in cointegrated vector autoregressive models with
non-linear time trends in cointegrating relations
. Econometric Theory17,
296-326
.
20.
Saikkonen P
(2001b)
Statistical inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models with
non-linear time trends in cointegrating relations
. Econometric Theory17,
327-356
.
21.
Seater JJ
(1993)
World temperature-trend uncertainties and their implications for economic policy
. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics11,
265-277
.
22.
Sollis R
,
Leybourne SJ
,
Newbold P
(1999)
Unit roots and asymmetric smooth transitions
. Journal of Time Series Analysis20,
671-677
.
23.
Terasvirta T
(1994)
Specification, estimation, and evaluation of smooth transition
autoregressive models
. Journal of the American Statistical Association89,
208-218
.
