Election Forecasting: Development of the Constant Sum Scale to be used in Telephone Surveys

Abstract

The Constant Sum Scale has been successfully tested to forecast election results in face-to-face surveys. As political polls are carried out using telephone surveys, there was a need to test the scale for use in telephone surveys. In this study the Constant Sum Scale was tested for implementation in a telephone survey. The study was carried out during an election that used the single transferable voting system, and the Constant Sum Scale was utilised to forecast the election outcome. The validation against the election results showed that the Constant Sum Scale was successful in ranking the candidates in the order they prevailed in the final electoral result. Respondents’ understanding, based on the judgements given by interviewers, was at a satisfactory level. The overall results suggest that the Constant Sum Scale can be implemented effectively in telephone surveys and is recommended for telephone polling of voters.