Optimization study of diesel engine emission prediction based on neural network model cluster

Abstract

This study aims to reduce the testing volume and cost of engine bench tests. By combining neural network models and ensemble learning algorithms, a model cluster prediction method is proposed to predict engine emissions. The core of this method is to use a large number of neural network models for prediction, taking the average of the prediction results as the final prediction result, thereby reducing prediction errors and improving accuracy. The findings reveal that this cluster-based approach significantly outperforms a single optimal model in forecasting steady-state emissions of NOx, HC, and CO in diesel engines. Notably, the performance of the model cluster is highly dependent on both the quality and the number of constituent sub-models, with enhanced predictive capabilities observed when higher-quality sub-models are included. Additionally, the study identifies a stabilization in predictive accuracy as the number of models increases, particularly within the range of 50 to 100 models, and achieving robust stability beyond 100 models. The research also underscores the importance of the training dataset size on the effectiveness of neural network modeling. A reduction in the training dataset from 28% to 18% leads to a decline in the coefficient of determination (R²) for NOx emissions prediction in a single neural network model from 0.6954 to 0.6539, a 5.97% decrease. For the model cluster method, the R² similarly drops from 0.8633 to 0.8154, a reduction of 5.55%. Notably, the neural network model suffers from distortion in predicting the peak position of NOx emissions. After supplementing specific operating condition training data in a targeted manner, the model training amount was increased from 18% to 25%. The model cluster method showed a good improvement in the prediction of NOx emissions, with the prediction coefficient increasing from 0.8154 to 0.8997, with an improvement rate of 10.34%. Through planning of training data, the study demonstrates that employing just 25% of experimental data for model clustering can effectively predict the engine emission trends for the remaining 75% of data in the target conditions. This approach offers a substantial reduction in experimental requirements while maintaining high prediction accuracy.