Cross-border effects of conflict on human development: evidence from the Arab region using a difference-in-differences approach

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the repercussions of conflicts in the MENA region on the Human Development Index (HDI) of neighboring countries, utilizing HDI as a comprehensive metric for assessing human development. The methodology employs panel data for 20 Arab countries, focusing on subnational HDI and its indicators, retreived from the Global Data Lab. The study utilizes the Difference in Difference (DiD) method, distinguishing treated groups consisting of countries bordering conflict zones and control groups comprising other nations. Specifically, we concentrate on the Syrian conflict (2011) and the Yemeni conflict (2014). While existing literature predominantly explores the impact of conflicts on a country’s own HDI, this contribution seeks to determine whether these effects extend to neighboring countries. This extends the scope of current literature, providing valuable insights into the regional implications of conflicts on human development.