Fertility impact of high-coverage public pensions in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

The potential link between child-related cash transfers and increased fertility is often raised as an issue of concern in debates as to their use. Old age pensions are a form of cash transfer where theory would suggest the opposite impact, namely, pensions equalling decreasing fertility. A handful of sub-Saharan African countries have introduced non-contributory social pensions that cover the great majority of the older population. This makes these countries a distinctive group in relation to the rest of the region, where public old age security arrangements, if they exist at all, are largely confined to the formal sector. This article attempts to trace the impact these high-coverage pension schemes may have had on fertility. The findings suggest there has been such an impact, to the extent of 0.5 to 1.5 fewer children per woman, depending on model specification. However, data limitations and methodological concerns require that the results be interpreted cautiously.