Communication studies pay little attention to futures research, while there is a lack of communication knowledge in futures research.This article discusses the function of futures research and ways to embed domain knowledge in predictions. First, it looks at futures research in relation to the use of information and communication technology (ICT) in households in 2010. Second, it incorporates communication knowledge based on the vision of experts. It is interested in the ways in which the contextual factors of the adoption and use of ICT can be taken into account. Scenarios take social changes, political and regulatory trends into account and draw alternative, divergent pictures of a future context within which the adoption, domestication, use and effects of new technologies will take place.Through the use of scenarios different contexts can be described in which the impact of specific technologies can be analysed, making use of the know-how of communication scholars.
Anderson, B., A. McWilliam, H. Lacohee, E. Clucas and J. Gershuny (1999) `Family Life in the Digital Home. Domestic Telecommunications at the End of the 20th Century', BT Technology Journal17(1): 85—97.
2.
Ascher, W.A. (1979) Forecasting. An Appraisal for Strategy-makers and Planners. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
3.
Avery, G. and E. Baker (2002) `Reframing the Infomated Household-workspace', Information and Organization12(2):109—34.
4.
Bakardjieva, M. and R. Smith (2001) `The Internet in Everyday Life: Computer Networking from the Standpoint of the Domestic User', New Media & Society3(1): 67—83.
5.
Bijker, W.E., T.P. Hughes and T.J. Pinch (1987) (eds) The Social Construction of Technological Systems. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press .
6.
Biocca, F. and M. Levy (eds) (1995) Communication in the Age of Virtual Reality . Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates .
7.
Bouwman, H. (2003) `Communication in the Information Society: ICT and the (In)Visibility of Communication Science in the Low Countries', Communications28(1): 61—87.
8.
Bouwman, H. and A. de Jong (1996) `Predicting Consumer Adoption of Information Technologies ', in N. Jankowski and L. Hanssen (eds) The Contours of Multimedia. Recent Technological,Theoretical and Empirical Developments, pp. 160—72. Luton: University of Luton Press.
9.
Bouwman, H. and P. van der Duin (2003) `Technological Forecasting and Scenarios Matter: Research into the Use of ICT in the Home Environment in 2010', Foresight5(4): 8—20.
10.
Bouwman H., R. Hes, T.M. La Porte and J.R. Westerveld (2000) Informatie en communicatietechnologie in huis. De Magnetron als Informatiebron.Trends in Informatie- en Communicatietechnologie in de Huiselijke Omgeving in het jaar 2010 [Information and Communication Technology in the Home.The Microwave as a Source of Information.Trends in Information and Communication Technology in the Home Environment in the Year 2010], report No. 64. The Hague : SCP.
11.
Bouwman, H., B. van den Hooff, L. van de Wijngaert and Jan van Dijk (2005) ICT in Organizations. London : Sage.
12.
Brody, H. (1991) `Great Expectations. Why Technological Predictions Go Awry', Technology Review94(5): 39—44.
13.
Carey, J. (1989) `Consumer Adoption of New Communication Technologies ', IEEE Communication Magazine (August), p. 28.
14.
Cassidy, J. (2002) Dot.con. How America Lost its Mind and Money in the Internet Era. New York: HarperCollins .
15.
Castells, M. (2001) The Internet Galaxy. Reflections on the Internet, Business and Society. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
16.
Central Bureau of Statistics (2005) De digitale economie 2004 [The Digital Economy 2004]. Voorburg/Heerlen: Central Bureau of Statistics.
17.
Coates, J., M. Farooque, R. Klavans, K. Lapid, H.A. Linstone, C. Pistorius and A.L. Porter (2001) `On the Future of Technological Forecasting', Technological Forecasting and Social Change67(1): 1—17.
18.
Davis, F.D. (1989) `Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease of Use and User Acceptance of Information Technology', Management Information Systems Quarterly13(3): 319—40.
19.
De Bens, E. and M. Knoche (1987) Electronic Mass Media in Europe: Prospects and Developments. Dordrecht: Reidel Publishing Company.
20.
De Sola Pool, I. (1977a) The Social Impact of the Telephone. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
21.
De Sola Pool, I. (1977b) Forecasting the Telephone: a Retrospective Technology Assessment. Norwood: Ablex.
22.
Dertouzous, M. (1997) What Will Be. How the New World of Information Will Change Our Lives. San Francisco, CA: Harper Edge.
23.
Dertouzous, M. (2001) The Unfinished Revolution. Human-centered Computers and What They Can Do for Us. New York: HarperCollins.
24.
Doherty, S. and E. Miller (2000) `A Computerized Household Activity Scheduling Survey ', Transportation27(1): 75—97.
25.
Durand, T. (2003) `Twelve Lessons from Key Technologies 2005: the French Technology Foresight Exercise', Journal of Forecasting22(2—3): 161—77.
26.
Eurostat/Central Bureau of Statistics (2005 ) The EU-15's New Economy: a Statistical Portrait. Voorburg: Eurostat/Central Bureau of Statistics.
27.
Flichy, P. (1995) Dynamics of Modern Communication.The Shaping and Impact of New Communication Technologies. London: Sage.
28.
Frissen,V. (2000) `ICTs in the Rush Hour of Life', The Information Society16(1): 65—75.
29.
Geels, F.W. and W.A. Smit (2000) `Failed Technology Futures: Pitfalls and Lessons from a Historical Survey', Futures32(9—10): 867—85.
30.
Holtmannspötter, D. and A. Zweck (2001) `Monitoring of Technology Forecasting Activities ', European Science and Technology Observatory project report prepared for the European Commission — Joint Research Centre and for the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies.
31.
Katz, J.E. and R.E. Rice (2002) Social Consequences of Internet Use, Access, Involvement and Interaction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
32.
Keenan, M. (2003) `Identifying Emerging Generic Technologies at the National Level: the UK Experience', Journal of Forecasting22(2—3): 129—60.
33.
Keenan, M., D. Loveridge, I. Miles and J. Kaivo-Oja (2003) Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight. Dublin: European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions.
34.
Klopfenstein, B. (1989) `Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services — Lessons from Home Video Forecasting', Journal of the American Society for Information Science40(1): 17—26.
35.
Koufaris, M. (2002) `Applying the Technology Acceptance Model and Flow Theory to Online Consumer Behaviour', Information Systems Research13(2): 205—23.
36.
Kurzweil, R. (1999) The Age of the Spiritual Machines. London: Viking/Penguin.
37.
Linstone, H.A. and M. Turoff (eds) (1975) Delphi Method:Techniques and Applications. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley .
38.
Loveridge, D. (2004) `Experts and Foresight: Review and Experience', International Journal of Foresight and InnovationPolicy1(1—2): 33—69.
39.
Lu, J., C.-S. Yu, C. Liu and J.Yao (2003) ` Technology Acceptance Model for Wireless Internet', Internet Research: Electronic NetworkingApplications and Policy13(3): 206—22.
40.
McCreadie, M. and R. Rice (1999) `Trends in Analyzing Access to Information', Information Processing and Management35(1): 45—76.
41.
McLuhan, M. (1967) The Medium Is the Message. New York: Bantam Books.
42.
Makridakis, S. (1986) `The Art and Science of Forecasting', International Journal of Forecasting2(1): 15—39.
43.
Markus, M.L. (1990) `Toward a Critical Mass Theory of Interactive Media ', in J. Fulk and C.W. Steinfield (eds) Organizations and Communication Technology , pp. 194—218. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
44.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (2003) Communications Outlook 2003. Paris: OECD.
45.
Pedersen, P. and R. Ling (2002) `Mobile End-user Service Adoption Studies: a Selective Review', URL (consulted 2 February 2007): http://ikt.hia.no/perep/pedersen_ling.pdf
46.
Peterson, J.W. (2002) `Leveraging Technology Foresight to Create Temporal Advantage', Technological Forecasting and Social Change69(5): 485—94.
47.
Porter,A. (1980) A Guidebook for Technology Assessment and Impact Analysis. New York: North Holland .
48.
Rescher, N. (1998) Predicting the Future: an Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press.
49.
Rogers, E.M. (1983) Diffusion of Innovations (4th edn). New York: Free Press.
50.
Schilit, A., N. Adams and R. Want (1994) `Context Aware Computing Applications', in A. Schilit, N. Adams and R. Want (eds) Proceedings of IEEE Workshop on Mobile Computing Systems and Applications , pp. 85—90. Santa Cruz, CA: IEEE Computer Society Press.
51.
Schnaars, S.P. (1989) Mega-mistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change. New York: Free Press.
52.
Silverstone, R. and E. Hirsch (eds) (1992) Consuming Technologies. Media and Information in Domestic Spaces. London: Routledge.
53.
Silverstone, R. and L. Haddon (1996) `Design and the Domestication of Information and Communication Technologies: Technical Change and Everyday Life', in R. Mansell and R. Silverstone (eds) Communication by Design.The Politics of Information and Communication Technologies, pp. 44—74. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
54.
Stöber, P. (2004) `What Media Evolution Is: a Theoretical Approach to the History of New Media', European Journal of Communication19(4): 483—505.
55.
The Economist (2004) `A Perfect Market. A Survey of e-Commerce', 15 May, p. 16.
56.
Van de Wijngaert, L. (1999) Matching Media. Information Need and New Media Choice. Enschede: Telematica Instituut .
57.
Van der Duin, P.A., P. Kandelaars and R. Kok (2000) `Just Imagine — a Marriage between Forecasting and Scenarios', Scenario and Strategy Planning4(2): pp. 8—11.
58.
Van der Heijden, K. (1996) Scenarios.The Art of Strategic Conversation. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons.
59.
Van Dijk, J. and L. de Vos (2001) `Searching for the Holy Grail: Images of Interactive Television', New Media & Society3(4): 443—65.
60.
Venkatesh,V. and S. Brown (2001) `A Longitudinal Investigation of Personal Computers in the Home. Adoption Determinant and Emerging Challenges', Management Information Systems Quarterly25(2): 71—102.
61.
Venkatesh,V., M. Morris, G. Davis and F. Davis (2003) `User Acceptance of Information Technology: Towards a Unified View', Management Information Systems Quarterly27(3): 425—77.
62.
Vitalari, N. and A.Venkatesh (1987) `In-home Computing and Information Services. A Twenty-year Analysis of the Technology and its Impacts', Telecommunications Policy11(1): 65—81.
63.
Wagner, C. and S. Popper (2003) `Identifying Critical Technologies in the United States; a Review of the Federal Effort', Journal of Forecasting22(2—3): 113—28.
64.
Williams, F., R.E. Rice and E.M.Rogers (1988) Research Methods and the New Media. New York: Free Press.
