Rates of growth in economic time series are one of the most commonly made computations in analytical programmes. Although exponential equation plays a pivotal role in estimating such rates of growth, there is a multiplicity of weak points associated with the usual methodology adopted for the purpose. The present note aims at highlighting some such limitations and points out avoidance of an indiscriminate use of the exponential equation. Depending upon the situation being faced with, the note outlines alternative approaches for estimating average annual rates of growth.
Chakraborti, S. (1987), ‘ Growth Pattern of National Income: A Time Series Study ’, The Indian Economic Journal, 34 (4): 18–24 .
2.
Croxton, F.E. , D.J. Cowden and S. Klein (1973), Applied General Statistics. New Delhi: Prentice Hall .
3.
Dandekar, V.M. (1980), ‘ Introduction to the Seminal on Data Base and Methodology for the Study of Growth Rates in Agriculture ’, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 35 (2): 1–12 .
4.
Denison, E.F. (1967), Why Growth Rates Differ: Post War Experience in Nine Western Countries. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution .
5.
Fell, H.A. and C.C. Greenfield (1983), ‘ Measuring Economic Growth ’, Review of Income and Wealth, 29 (2): 205–08 .
Jayalakshmi, M. (1988), ‘Growth Rates of the Indian Economy: An Exercise in Methods’, Unpublished Monograph.
8.
Kendrick, J.W. (1981), ‘Why Productivity Growth Rates Change and Differ?’, in H. Giersch (ed.), Towards an Explanation of Economic Growth. Tübingen: J.C.B. Mohr (Paul Siebeck) .
9.
Nagaraj, R. (1990), ‘ Growth Rate of India's GDP, 1950–51 to 1987–88: Examination of Alternative Hypotheses ’, Economic and Political Weekly, (June): 1396–1403 .
10.
Paul, S. and B. Bhaskara Rao (1991), ‘ Income Inequality Adjusted Growth Rates ’, Australian Economic Papers, 30 (57): 287–9 .
11.
Rao, V.M. (1980), ‘ Methodological Issues in Measuring Agricultural Growth: Lessons of Recent India Researches ’, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 35 (2): 13–20 .
12.
Rao, B. Bhaskara and Maheshwar Rao (2005), ‘Determinants of Growth Rate: Some Methodological Issues with Data From Fiji’. Working Paper No. 0509003, provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics, September.
13.
Reddy, V.N. (1978), ‘ Growth Rates ’, Economic and Political Weekly, 13 (19): 806–12 .
14.
Rudra, A. (1970), ‘The Rate of Growth of the Indian Economy’, in E.A.G. Robinson and M. Kidron (eds.), Economic Development in South Asia, pp. 35–53. London: McMillan .
15.
Sal Amirkhalkhali and A. Dar (2003), ‘ On Explaining the Differences in Economic Growth Rates in OECD Countries ’, Ekonomia, 6 (2): 147–59 .
16.
Sethi, A.S. (1997), Dynamics of National Income. New Delhi: Deep and Deep Publications .
17.
Sethi, A.S. (1999), ‘ Causal Behaviour between Income and Saving in India—Evidence from Cross-Correlation Approach ’, Anvesak, 29 (2): 43–56 .
18.
Sethi, A.S. (2003), ‘ Consumption Expenditure and Income in India: Short-term Forecasts and Causality Behaviour ’, Indian Journal of Quantitative Economics, 17(1 & 2): 61–90 .
19.
Sethi, A.S. (2004), Sectoral Leads and Lags In Income of the Punjab State: Policy Implications for Balanced Growth. Unpublished Report of Minor Project. Amritsar: GND University.
20.
Sethi, A.S. and P.S. Raikhy (2001a), ‘Changing Sources of Economic Growth in India: Implications for Second Generation Reforms’, in Ruddar Datt (ed.), Second Generation Economic Reforms in India, pp. 120–37. New Delhi: Deep and Deep Publications .
21.
Sethi, A.S. and P.S. Raikhy (2001b), ‘Forecast Modelling of National Income—Box-Jenkins' Approach’, in Om Parkash (ed.), Current Trends in Information Theory, Statistics and O.R., pp. 198–210. Amritsar: GND University Press .
22.
Stock, J.H. and M.W. Watson (2003), Introduction to Econometrics. Singapore: Pearson Education .
23.
Thomson, David G. (2005), Blueprint to a Billion: 7 Essentials to Achieve Exponential Growth. New York: John Wiley and Sons .
24.
Ware, G.O. , K. Ohki and L.C. Moon (1982), ‘ The Mitscherlich Plant Growth Model for Determining Critical Nutrient Deficiency Levels ’, Agronomy Journal, 74: 88–91 .