The theory crisis in criminology: Causes,consequences,and solutions

Abstract

Criminology has begun to grapple with concerns about the replication crisis, with current efforts addressing methodological and analytical concerns along with questionable research practices. Causes of the replication crisis, however, occur at every link in the derivation chain, from theory to empirical test to interpretation of results to reporting practices. Psychology—which has been wrestling with its own replication crisis since at least the 2010s—has begun to recognize these early-chain causes and thus has turned its attention toward the “theory crisis”: the finding that most psychological theories are imprecise to the point of being unfalsifiable. We demonstrate how many of the theoretical issues identified in psychology parallel both recognized and unrecognized issues in criminological theory. We then discuss ways to address the theory crisis in criminology and mitigate its contribution to the larger reproducibility crisis in criminology and the social sciences.