Time-series analysis of German outbound travel patterns

Abstract

This paper discusses trends in German outbound tourism over 20 years from 1970 to 1992. It reveals changing trends with regard to destination choice and transportation mode used by German tourists. Further, the paper discloses that Germans are becoming more familiar with destinations not only in Europe but also in many other countries and regions of the world. It is argued that while the increasing destination familiarity by Germans could increase the potential of more effective use of word-of-mouth communication channels, it may also reduce the amount of repeat business owing to a desire to see other, new places. Longitudinal research on individuals' travel careers is required to identify segments based on their travel experience and travel destination choice patterns such as to facilitate more cost-effective marketing efforts.

Keywords

Germany outbound travel destination choice destination familiarity longitudinal analysis

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Dann, G. , Nash, D. and Pearce, P. (1988) 'Methodology in Tourism Research', Annals of Tourism Research, No. 15, pp. 1-28.

Mitchell, L.S. and Smith, R.V. (1989) 'The Geography of Recreation, Tourism, and Sports', in G. L. Gaile and C. J. Willmott , eds, 'Geography in America', Merrill Publishing Company, Columbus, Ohio, pp. 387-408.

Oppermann, M. (1994a), Travel Life Cycles — A Multitemporal Perspective of Changing Travel Patterns', in R. V. Gasser and K. Weiermair , eds, 'Spoilt for Choice — Decision Making Processes and Preference Changes of Tourists: Intertemporal and Intercountry Perspectives ', Kulturverlag, Thaur, pp. 81-97.

Hudman, L.E. and Davis, J.A. (1994) 'World Tourism Markets: Changes and Patterns', Proceedings of the 25th TTRA Conference, Bal Harbour, Florida, TTRA, Wheatridge.

Aderhold, P. (1992) 'Trends in German Outbound Tourism', World Travel and Tourism Review, Vol. 2, pp. 113-121.

See ref. 4 above.

Plog, S.C. (1991) 'Leisure Travel: Making it a Growth Market ... Again!', John Wiley and Sons, New York.

Ibid. p. 83.

Oppermann, M. (1995) 'Travel Life Cycle', Annals of Tourism Research, No. 22, pp. 535-552.

10.

Smith, S.L.J. (1990) 'A Test of Plog's Allocentric/Psychocentric Model: Evidence from Seven Nations', Journal of Travel Research , Vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 40-45.

11.

Cockerell, N. (1993) 'Germany Outbound', EIU Travel and Tourism Analyst, No. 2, pp. 19-34.

12.

Oppermann, M. (1994b) 'The Obvious and the Elusive: Single and Multi-destination Travelers in Malaysia', Paper presented at the 1994 Annual CHRIE Conference, Palm Springs, California.

13.

Lohmann, M. (1991) 'Evolution of Shortbreak Holidays', Tourist Review, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 14-23.

14.

Studienkreis für Tourismus (StfT) (various years, 1973-93) 'Urlaubsreisen — Kurzfassung der Reisenanalyse', StfT, Starnberg .

15.

See ref. 4 above.

16.

Ibid.

17.

Ashworth, G.J. (1991) 'Products, Places and Promotion: Destination Images in the Analysis of the Tourism Industry', in M. T. Sinclair and M. J. Stabler , eds, 'The Tourism Industry: An Introductory Analysis' , C. A. B. International, Oxon , pp. 121-142.

18.

See ref. 11 above.

19.

Butler, R.W. (1980) 'The Concept of a Tourism Area Cycle of Evolution. Implications for the Management of Resources', Canadian Geographer, No. 4, pp. 5-12; and see also ref. 7 above. (20) See ref. 9 above.

20.

Pearce, P.L. (1993) 'Fundamentals of Tourist Motivation', in D. G. Pearce and R. W. Butler , eds, 'Tourism Research: Critique and Challenge', Routledge, London /New. York , pp. 113-134.

21.

See ref. 9 above.