Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

Inbound tourism from China contributes to around 15% of Australian tourist arrivals. However, the political and trade relations between the two countries began to deteriorate since 2018. Considering this environment, using annual data from 1991 to 2019, this study enables the identification of alternative tourism markets for Australia. The results suggest that maintaining price competitiveness and consumer satisfaction should be high priorities of the Australian tourism policy to attract more tourists. The findings of this study provide insights to formulate new strategies to attract tourists from the other top markets in the event of a decline in Chinese tourist arrivals to Australia.

Keywords

inbound tourism Australia-China relationship tourism price elasticity tourism income elasticity

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

ABC (2020) China warns citizens not to travel to Australia amid ‘increased’ racism since coronavirus outbreak. Retrieved from: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-06/do-not-travel-to-australia-china-warns-citizens-of-racism/123284888 (accessed 6 Jun 2020).

ABS (2019) 3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Table 4. Retrieved from Australian Bureau of Statistics 10 July 2021 https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/overseas-arrivals-and-departures-australia/latest-release

ABS (2020) Australian national accounts: tourism satellite account 2018-19 financial year. Retrieved from https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/national-accounts/australian-national-accounts-tourism-satellite-account/2018-19 (accessed 20 October 2020).

Adams

Opoku

EEO

(2021) Trade and environmental pollution in Africa: accounting for consumption and territorial-based emissions. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 27: 44230–44239. DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-10328-8.

Bagshaw

(2020) Australia suspends Hong Kong extradition treaty, extends Hongkongers’ Visas after security law imposed. The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved from: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australia-suspends-hong-kong-extradition-treaty-extends-hong-kongers-visas-after-security-law-imposed-20200709-p55ak8.html (accessed 9 July 2020).

Blundell

Bond

(1998) Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics 87: 115–143.

Boyle

(2021) Australia must stop beating the drums of war against China. Retrieved from: https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/australia-must-stop-beating-drums-war-against-china

Butler

(1980) The concept of a tourist area resort cycle of evolution: implications for management of resources. Canadian Geographer 14: 5–12.

Butler

Mao

(1996) Conceptual and theoretical implications of tourism between partitioned states. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research 1(1): 25–34.

10.

Conifer

(2020) China imposes 80pc tariff on Australian barley for next five years amid global push for coronavirus investigation. ABC News. Retrieved from: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-18/china-to-impose-tariffs-on-australian-barley/12261108 (accessed 18 May 2020).

11.

Crouch

(1992) Effect of income and price on international tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 19(4): 643–664.

12.

Crouch

Schultz

Valerio

(1992) Marketing international tourism to Australia: a regression analysis. Tourism Management 13(2): 196–208.

13.

Dickey

Fuller

(1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74: 427–431.

14.

Divisekera

(1995) An econometric model of economic determinants of international visitors flows to Australia. Australian Economic Papers 34(65): 291–308.

15.

Divisekera

(2003) A model of demand for international tourism. Annals of Tourism Research 30(1): 31–49.

16.

Dwyer

Forsyth

Spurr

(2006) Assessing the economic impacts of events: a computable general equilibrium approach. Journal of Travel Research 45(1): 59–66.

17.

Dwyer

Pham

Jago

, et al. (2016) Modeling the impact of Australia’s mining boom on tourism: a classic case of Dutch disease. Journal of Travel Research 55(2): 233–245.

18.

Dziedzic

(2020) A Hindrance or a Help? What do China’s new ore regulations mean for Australian Exporters? ABC News. Retrieved from: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-24/what-do-chinas-new-regulations-mean-for-australia/12280396 (accessed 24 May 2020).

19.

Dziedzic

(2021) China slams Australian Government for ‘politicising trade’ over decision to block Probuild sale to Chinese company. ABC News. Retrieved from: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-13/china-slams-australia-for-politicising-trade-over-probuild-bid/13053682 (accessed 13 January 2021).

20.

D’Amore

(1994) Tourism: the world, ’s peace industry. In Van Harsell

(ed) Tourism: An Exploration. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall, 112–117.

21.

Global Times (2021) Australia income from tourism decline as Chinese stay away. Global Times. Retrieved from: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1217383.shtml (accessed 4 March 2021).

22.

Hall

(1994) Tourism and Politics: Policy, Power, and Place. Chichester: Wiley.

23.

Hall

Jenkins

(1995) Tourism and Public Policy. London and New York: Routledge.

24.

Henderson

(2003) The politics of tourism in Myanmar. Current Issues in Tourism 6(2): 97–118.

25.

Herzer

Strulik

(2017). Religiosity and income: a panel cointegration and causality analysis. Applied Economics 49(30):2922–2938.

26.

Hitch

Probyn

(2020) China believed to be behind major cyber attack on Australian governments and businesses. ABC News. Retrieved from: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-19/foreign-cyber-hack-targets-australian-government-and-business/12372470 (accessed 19 June 2020).

27.

Jayasinghe

Selvanathan

(2021) Energy consumption, tourism, economic growth and CO2 emissions nexus in India. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 26(2): 361–380.

28.

Kulendran

(1995) Modelling international short-term tourist flow to Australia using the demand function approach. In: Paper presented at the National Tourism and Hospitality Conference14–17 February, Canberra, Australia.

29.

Kulendran

(1996) Modelling quarterly tourist flows to Australia using cointegration analysis. Tourism Economics 2(3): 203–222.

30.

Kulendran

Divisekera

(2007) Measuring the economic impact of Australian tourism marketing expenditure. Tourism Economics 13(2): 261–274.

31.

Kulendran

Dwyer

(2008) Measuring the return from Australian tourism marketing expenditure. Journal of Travel Research 47(3): 275–284.

32.

Kulendran

King

(1997) Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error-correction and time-series models. International Journal of Forecasting 13(3): 319–327.

33.

Legg

Tang

Slevitch

(2012) Does political ideology play a role in destination choice? American Journal of Tourism Research 1(2): 45–58.

34.

Maddala

(1999) Bootstrap variance estimation of nonlinear functions: an application to long-run elasticities of Energy demand. The Review of Economics and Statistics 81(4): 728–733.

35.

Lim

(1997) Review of international tourism demand models. Annals of Tourism Research 24(4): 835–849.

36.

Lim

(1999) A meta analysis review of international tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research 37(3): 273–284.

37.

Morley

(1998) A dynamic international demand model. Annals of Tourism Research 25(1): 70–84.

38.

Neal

(2015). Estimating heterogeneous coefficients in panel data models with endogenous regressors and common factors. Working Paper. Australia: The University of New South Wales.

39.

Needham

(2021) Australia cancels belt and road deals; china warns of further damage to ties. Reuters. Retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/australia-cancels-victoria-states-belt-road-deals-with-china-2021-04-21/ (accessed 21 April 2021).

40.

Oppermann

(2000) Tourism destination loyalty. Journal of Travel Research 39(1): 78–84.

41.

Peng

Song

Crouch

, et al. (2014) A meta-analysis of international tourism demand elasticities. Journal of Travel Research 54(5): 611–633.

42.

Pesaran

(2007) A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics 22(2): 265–312.

43.

Pham

Jago

Spurr

, et al. (2015) The Dutch disease effects on tourism – the case of Australia. Tourism Management 46: 610–622.

44.

Pham

Nghiem

Dwyer

(2017) The determinants of Chinese visitors to Australia: a dynamic demand analysis. Tourism Management 63: 268–276.

45.

Phillips

Perron

(1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Bimetrika 75: 335–346.

46.

PricewaterhouseCoopers (2017). The World in 2050. Retrieved from: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html

47.

Prideaux

(2005) Factors affecting bilateral tourism flows. Annals of Tourism Research 32(3): 780–801.

48.

Reuters (2020) China Suspends Beef Imports from Sixth Australian Beef Supplier. Reuters. Retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/article/china-australia-trade-beef-idUKKBN28H135 (accessed 7 December 2020).

49.

Richter

(1989) The Politics of tourism in Asia. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press.

50.

Ritchie

(2004) Chaos, crises and disasters: a strategic approach to crisis management in the tourism industry. Tourism Management 25(6): 669–683.

51.

Sarafidis

Robertson

(2009) On the impact of error cross-sectional dependence in short dynamic panel estimation. Econometrics Journal 12(1):62–81.

52.

Seetaram

(2010) Use of dynamic panel cointegration approach to model international arrivals to Australia. Journal of Travel Research 49(4): 414–422.

53.

Seetaram

(2012) Immigration and international inbound tourism: empirical evidence from Australia. Tourism Management: 33(6) 1535–1543.

54.

Selvanathan

(2022) What makes Vietnam a Preferred Tourism Destination? An Empirical Analysis, Tourism Analysis 27(1): 1–18 https://doi.org/10.3727/108354221X16186396395683, 2021.

55.

Selvanathan

Jayasinghe

Selvanathan

(2021a) Dynamic modelling of inter-relationship between tourism, energy consumption, CO₂ emissions and economic growth in South Asia. International Journal of Tourism Research 23: 597–610.

56.

Selvanathan

Jayasinghe

Selvanathan

(2021b) International tourism and infectious disease transmission nexus: a cross-country and regional study. Journal of Travel Research. DOI: 10.1177/00472875211048932.

57.

Sheldon

Dwyer

(2010) The global financial crisis and tourism: perspectives of the academy. Journal of Travel Research 49(1): 3–4.

58.

Smeral

(2009) Impacts of the world recession and economic crisis on tourism: forecasts and potential risks Journal of Travel Research 49(1): 31–38.

59.

Srinivasan

(2020) China’s trade war with Australia is affecting a growing number of industries. How did we get here? ABC News. Retrieved from: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-10/chinas-trade-war-with-australia-export-industry/12967190 (accessed 10 December 2020).

60.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) (2020) The deterioration of Australia–China relations. Retrieved from: https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2020/australia-china-relations

61.

Tourism Australia (2016) Tourism 2020. http://www.tourismaustralia.com/about-us/tourism2020.aspx. (accessed July 2021).

62.

Tourism Research Australia (2020) State of the industry 2018–19 In Canberra: tourism research Australia.

63.

Valadkhani

O’Mahony

(2018) Identifying structural changes and regime switching in growing and declining inbound tourism markets in Australia. Current Issues in Tourism 21(3): 277–300.

64.

Witt

Martin

(1987) Econometric models for forecasting international tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research 25(3): 23–30.

65.

(1998) Travel between politically divided China and taiwan. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research 2(1): 19–30.

66.

Chung

(2001) Tourism as a catalytic force for low-politics activities between politically divided countries: the cases of South/North Korea and taiwan/China. New Political Science 23(4): 537–545.

Deteriorating Australia-China relations and prospects for the Australian tourism industry: A dynamic demand analysis

Abstract

Keywords

Get full access to this article

References