Is the volatility of international tourism revenues affected by tourism source market structure? An empirical analysis of Turkey

Abstract

This study examines the effect of tourism source market structure on the volatility of tourism revenues in Turkey, using the number of tourists according to nationality and the data on international tourism revenues. The tourism source market structure was measured using the normalized Herfindahl–Hirschman index and the relative entropy index, which is based on the number of tourists visiting Turkey from 107 source markets. The volatility of tourism revenues and the effect of tourism source market structure on this volatility were assessed using the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) method. The results show that both variables measuring tourism source market structure affect the volatility of tourism revenues. Accordingly, the concentration of the tourism source market increases the volatility of tourism revenues, whereas source market diversification decreases it.