Since the 1980s, Turkey has given priority to the advancement and expansion of its tourism industry as part of achieving economic growth and development. This study empirically re-examines the possible causal relationships among tourism receipts, real exchange rate and economic growth by using annual data (1964–2006). Johansen multivariate cointegration analysis reveals the existence of a ‘stable’ and significant long-run equilibrium relationship among real GDP, tourism receipts and real exchange rate (RER). Granger causality tests based on the error correction model indicate a unidirectional causality from tourism receipts and RER to real GDP.
BrüggemannA.DonatiP.WarneA. (2003), ‘Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?’, European Central Bank Working Paper No 255 (http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp255.pdf, accessed 1 April 2006).
2.
DickeyD.FullerW.A. (1979), ‘Distribution of the estimates for autoregressive time series with a unit root’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol 74, pp 427–431.
3.
EngleR.F.GrangerC.W.J. (1987), ‘Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing’, Econometrica, Vol 55, pp 251–276.
4.
GunduzL.Hatemi-JA. (2005), ‘Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?’, Applied Economics Letters, Vol 12, pp 499–504.
5.
HansenH.JohansenS. (1999), ‘Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR models’, Econometrics Journal, Vol 2, pp 306–333.
6.
JohansenS. (1988), ‘Statistical analysis of co-integrating vectors’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol 12, pp 231–254.
7.
JohansenS. (1995), Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
8.
JohansenS.JuseliusK. (1990), ‘Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on co-integration with application to the demand for money’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol 52, pp 169–221.
9.
KatirciogluS.T. (2009), ‘Revisiting the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration’, Tourism Management, Vol 30, pp 17–20.
10.
KwiatkowskiD.PhillipsP.C.B.SchmidtP.ShinY. (1992), ‘Testing the null hypothesis of stationary against the alternative of a unit root’, Journal of Econometrics, Vol 54, pp 159–178.
11.
LütkepohlH.KrätzigM., eds (2004), Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
12.
OnganS.DemirozD.M. (2005), ‘The contribution of tourism to long-run Turkish economic growth’, Ekonomický cjasopis, Journal of Economics, Vol 53, No 9, pp 880–894.
