Long-running traditions of racial exclusionism: Is there evidence of historical continuity in local support for extreme right parties in England and Wales?

Abstract

Some regions of the United Kingdom present more fertile grounds for consecutive incarnations of extreme right parties than others. In a study by Goodwin et al., the authors found evidence of the legacy effect, where an earlier cycle of activism by the National Front (NF), an extreme right political party active in the 1970s, emerged as a strong and significant predictor of membership in the British National Party (BNP) three decades later. While their study speaks to the supply-side arguments for extreme right success (organizational continuity and local cultural traditions in particular), here we examine whether a similar legacy effect can be observed with respect to demand for extreme right politics. As we are going to show there is some overlap between the share of votes cast for the NF and the BNP, yet there are a number of constituencies that do not adhere to this pattern. We conclude that while the supply-side legacy effect is not ruled out, the legacy effect hypothesis does not find support for demand-side explanation of extreme right support.