This is a report on the effects of party reform and federal election campaign finance reform on the US presidential pre-nomination process. It provides empirical support for commonly held perceptions about the importance of a first- or second-place finish in the New Hampshire primary. Specifically, a regression equation is used to demonstrate that the withdrawal dates of third-or-worse finishers can be predicted from the amount of the first 2 months of matching funds disbursements. A liberalization of the financial regulations or some restoration of state party control over delegate selection is needed, but not likely to occur.
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