Unpacking Overtourism in Barcelona (1986–2025): A Longitudinal Process-Tracing Analysis and the Cascade Amplification Framework

Abstract

This study employs longitudinal process tracing to examine overtourism in Barcelona (1986–2025), tracing its trajectory from an industrial port to a global tourism hub. Drawing on 45 evidentiary units, Bayesian updating, and Collier’s (2011) diagnostic tests, we validate seven causal mechanisms: infrastructure lock-in, regulatory gaps, digital amplification, cultural commodification, resident resistance, governance fragmentation, and biopolitical erosion. These mechanisms interact through path-dependent feedback loops under neoliberal urbanisation, generating housing crises, cultural erosion, and social conflict. Challenging linear destination life-cycle narratives, we propose the Cascade Amplification Framework, a five-layered model designed to mitigate overtourism and offer transferable insights for other urban tourism destinations facing similar pressures.