The Reality of Sea Level Rise in Coastal Tourism Destinations in the United States

Abstract

Low-lying portions of coastal destinations in the United States are forecasted to be underwater by 2050. This research conducted a supply-side study on hotel managers/executives (Study 1) and a demand-side study on travel consumers (Study 2) to examine the extent to which these tourism stakeholder groups predict whether portions of the coastal destinations will actually be underwater. On the supply side, in 63% of cases, respondents indicate that the focal destination is “unlikely” to be partially underwater by 2050. On the demand side, the “unlikely” rate is 54%. This research finds a “hurricane frequency bias” in which destinations located in states with relatively high hurricane frequencies are perceived to be more likely to be partially underwater by 2050 in comparison to destinations located in states with relatively low hurricane frequencies. In reality, however, numerous low hurricane frequency destinations are experiencing the largest amounts of nuisance flooding, a precursor to future land loss.