A Statistical Analysis of the Effect of State-Level Economic Conditions On the 1992 Presidential Election

Abstract

Cross-sectional data are used to assess the effect of state-level economic conditions on state outcomes in the 1992 presidential election. The analysis provides evidence on the role of macroeconomic variables in models of national election outcomes and presents simulations to determine whether changes in economic circumstances might have reversed the election's result. It is argued that self-interested voters are more likely to prefer a new president if they are experiencing unemployment or income losses, or if they fear that economic conditions may lead to their own unemployment or inadequate income growth. Altruistic voters may seek a change to improve the economic positions of others. Whether specified as the current unemployment rate or as recent real per capita income growth, states with subpar economic performances are found to have significantly higher voter shares for Clinton. The simulations indicate that reasonable adjustments in state unemploy ment rates do not reverse the election outcome, whereas more rapid personal income growth during the year prior to the election results in a Bush victory.