Why Tax Effort Falls Short of Tax Capacity in Indian States

Abstract

This article attempts to measure tax capacity and tax effort of fourteen major Indian states from 1991–1992 to 2010–2011 using stochastic frontier analysis. It shows that the variation across states in tax effort is wide and increasing over time. While per capita gross state domestic product, literacy rate, and labor force participation have positive association with tax capacity, a greater share of agriculture has negative association. Furthermore, intergovernmental transfers, given tax capacity, have negative association with tax effort of states. Expenditure on debt repayment is also adversely associated with tax effort but to a lower extent than outstanding liabilities. Enactment of Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act is associated with improvement in states’ tax effort. Both within-state political competition and governance indicators have positive association on tax effort.