Sexual abstinence programs have the potential to reduce the incidence of unplanned pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among adolescents. Effectiveness measures are needed to help researchers assess the impact of sexual abstinence promotion programs on STD and pregnancy rates and to enable comparisons of abstinence effectiveness with other contraception and STD prevention methods. Abstinence “failure rates” have been proposed as one measure of program effectiveness. However, the concept of abstinence failure rates has not been adequately operationalized. The present study examines a novel mathematical framework for estimating abstinence failure rates, both theoretically and empirically. Examples are provided, and the advantages and disadvantages associated with the mathematical model–based approach are discussed.
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