Short-Haul Moves and the Political Geography of Partisanship: Intrametropolitan Migration as a Force for Change in U.S. Politics

Abstract

We consider how the high volume of short-distance migration within metropolitan areas contributes to partisan sorting across the United States. Compared to long-distance moves, these local moves involve many more individuals each year and thus have substantial potential to shape political geography. At the same time, short-distance moves set a high bar for any assortative hypothesis because local movers face more limited destination options. If one cannot find a more politically compatible neighborhood nearby, it may be impossible to move to one. We draw on voter records comparing movers and nonmovers within 215 metro areas across nine states. Our results show surprisingly high levels of sorting even when moves occur within the same core-based statistical area and state. These patterns persist even after accounting for other destination characteristics known to influence relocation. Short-distance moves contribute modestly but meaningfully to the growing political lopsidedness of many legislative districts between censuses.