This article analyzes the impact arts institutions have on human capital attraction and gentrification in Census tracts experiencing different levels of population change. It addresses the ongoing interest in causal models of arts-driven neighborhood change and contextualizes the impact of arts institutions on neighborhoods with varying change trends. The analysis looked at U.S. Census and County Business Patterns data in 24,819 U.S. Census tracts between 2000 and 2010. Controlling for past trends of gentrification and different levels of ongoing population growth, multivariate regression modeling of tract change among propensity-score-matched tract groups suggests that new arts institutions have a positive effect on the number of highly educated residents and high-income groups, even in declining tracts. Furthermore, modeling suggests that new arts institutions are not strongly associated with an immediate change in resident composition associated with displacement gentrification, but may lead to displacement in the longer term.
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