Predictive Properties of the Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense Version as a Function of Age

Abstract

The present study examined the discrimination and calibration properties of Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores for sexual and violent recidivism as a function of age at release, on a combined sample of 1,287 men who had attended sexual offense-specific treatment services. The key aim was to examine to what extent VRS-SO scores can accurately discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among older cohorts, and if the existing age-related adjustments in the instrument adequately correct for increasing age. VRS-SO risk and change scores showed consistent properties of discrimination for sexual recidivism across the age cohorts, via area under the curve and Cox regression survival analysis, as demonstrated through fixed effects meta-analysis. Calibration analyses, employing logistic regression, demonstrated that age at release was consistently incrementally predictive of violent, but not sexual, recidivism after controlling for individual differences on static and dynamic risk factors. E/O index analyses demonstrated that predicted rates of sexual recidivism from VRS-SO scores, particularly when employed with Static-99R, were not significantly different from those observed among age cohorts; however, calibration was weaker for general violence. Implications for use of the VRS-SO in sexual recidivism risk assessment with older offenders are discussed.

Keywords

VRS-SO sexual recidivism change risk assessment age

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Andrews

D. A.

Bonta

Hoge

R. D.

(1990). Classification for rehabilitation: Rediscovering psychology. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 17(1), 19-52. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854890017001004

Beggs

S. M.

Grace

R. C.

(2010). Assessment of dynamic risk factors: An independent validation study of the Violence Risk Scale: Sexual Offender Version. Sexual Abuse, 22(2), 234-251. https://doi.org/10.1177/1079063210369014

Beggs

S. M.

Grace

R. C.

(2011). Treatment gains for sexual offenders against children predicts reduced recidivism: A comparative validity study. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 79(2), 182-192. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0022900

Bekbolatkyzy

D. S.

Yerenatovna

D. R.

Maratuly

Y. A.

Makhatovna

A. G.

Beaver

K. M.

(2019). Aging out of adolescent delinquency: Results from a longitudinal sample of youth and young adults. Journal of Criminal Justice, 60(January-February), 108-116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2018.09.001

Boe

Nafekh

Vuong

Sinclair

Cousineau

(2003). The changing profile of the federal inmate population: 1997 and 2002. Research Branch, Correctional Service of Canada.

Borenstein

Hedges

Higgins

Rothstein

(2005). Comprehensive meta-analysis (Version 2) [Computer software]. Biostat.

Call

Sprecher

Schwartz

(1995). The incidence and frequency of marital sex in a national sample. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 57(3), 639-652. https://doi.org/10.2307/353919

Dawes

(2009). Ageing prisoners: Issues for social work. Australian Social Work, 62(2), 258-271. https://doi.org/10.1080/03124070902803475

DeLamater

Moorman

S. M.

(2007). Sexual behavior in later life. Journal of Aging and Health, 19(6), 921-945. https://doi.org/10.1177/0898264307308342

10.

Farrington

D. P.

(1986). Age and crime. Crime and justice, 7(1), 189-250. https://doi.org/10.1086/449114

11.

Feldman

H. A.

Longcope

Derby

C. A.

Johannes

C. B.

Araujo

A. B.

Coviello

Bremner

W. J.

McKinlay

J. B.

(2002). Age trends in the level of serum testosterone and other hormones in middle-aged men: Longitudinal results from the Massachusetts male aging study. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 87(2), 589-598. https://doi.org/10.1210/jcem.87.2.8201

12.

Handtke

Bretschneider

Wangmo

Elger

B. S.

(2012). Facing the challenges of an increasingly ageing prison population in Switzerland: In search of ethically acceptable solutions. Bioethica Forum, 5(4), 134-141. http://www.bioethica-forum.ch/docs/12_4/04_Handtke.pdf

13.

Hanson

R. K.

(2002). Recidivism and age: Data from 4,673 sexual offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 17(10), 1046-1062. https://doi.org/10.1177/08862605-0201710-02

14.

Hanson

R. K.

(2006). Does Static-99 predict recidivism among older sexual offenders? Sexual Abuse, 18(4), 343-355. https://doi.org/10.1177/107906320601800403

15.

Hanson

R. K.

(2017). Assessing the calibration of actuarial risk scales: A primer on the E/O index. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 44(1), 26-39. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854816683956

16.

Hanson

R. K.

Bussière

M. T.

(1998). Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66(2), 348-362. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-006X.66.2.348

17.

Hanson

R. K.

Harris

A. J. R.

Letourneau

Helmus

L. M.

Thornton

(2018). Reductions in risk based on time offense free in the community: Once a sex offender, not always a sex offender. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 24(1), 48-63. https://doi.org/10.1037/law0000135

18.

Hanson

R. K.

Harris

A. J. R.

Scott

T. L.

Helmus

(2007). Assessing the risk of sexual offenders on community supervision: The Dynamic Supervision Project (Vol. 5). Public Safety Canada.

19.

Hanson

R. K.

Helmus

L. M.

Harris

A. J. R.

(2015). Assessing the risk and needs of supervised sexual offenders: A prospective study using STABLE-2007, Static-99R, and Static-2002R. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 42, 1205–1224. doi:10.1177/0093854815602094

20.

Hanson

R. K.

Morton-Bourgon

K. E.

(2009). The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies. Psychological Assessment, 21(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0014421

21.

Hanson

R. K.

Thornton

(1999). Static 99: Improving actuarial risk assessments for sex offenders (User Report 99-02). Department of the Solicitor General of Canada.

22.

Hanson

R. K.

Thornton

(2000). Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales. Law and Human behavior, 24(1), 119-136. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005482921333

23.

Harris

Phenix

Thornton

Hanson

R. K.

(2003). Static 99: Coding rules revised 2003. Solicitor General Canada.

24.

Helmus

Thornton

Hanson

R. K.

Babchishin

K. M.

(2012). Improving the predictive accuracy of Static-99 and Static-2002 with older sex offenders: Revised age weights. Sexual Abuse, 24(1), 64-101. https://doi.org/10.1177/1079063211409951

25.

Higgins

Thompson

S. G.

Deeks

J. J.

Altman

D. G.

(2003). Measuring inconsistency in meta-analyses. British Medical Journal, 327, 557–560. doi:10.1136/bmj.327.7414.557

26.

Isaacowitz

D. M.

Vaillant

G. E.

Seligman

M. E.

(2003). Strengths and satisfaction across the adult lifespan. International Journal of Aging and Human Development, 57(2), 181-201. https://doi.org/10.2190/61EJ-LDYR-Q55N-UT6E

27.

Lussier

Healey

(2009). Rediscovering Quetelet, again: The “aging” offender and the prediction of reoffending in a sample of adult sex offenders. Justice Quarterly, 26(4), 827-856. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418820802593360

28.

Matthias

R. E.

Lubben

J. E.

Atchison

K. A.

Schweitzer

S. O.

(1997). Sexual activity and satisfaction among very old adults: Results from a community-dwelling Medicare population survey. The Gerontologist, 37(1), 6-14. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/37.1.6

29.

McGrath

R. J.

Lasher

M. P.

Cumming

G. F.

(2012). Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS): Psychometric properties and incremental predictive validity with Static-99R. Sexual Abuse, 24(5), 431-458. https://doi.org/10.1177/1079063211432475

30.

MedCalc. (2019). MedCalc: User-friendly statistical software (Version 19.0.6) [Computer software]. https://www.medcalc.org

31.

Mundt

J. C.

(2015). VRS-SO calculator. www.psynergy.ca

32.

Nicholaichuk

T. P.

Olver

M. E.

Wong

S. C. P.

(2014). Age, actuarial risk, and long-term recidivism in a national sample of sex offenders. Sexual Abuse, 26(5), 406-428. https://doi.org/10.1177/1079063213492340

33.

Olver

M. E.

Mundt

J. C.

Thornton

Beggs Christofferson

S. M.

Kingston

D. A.

Sowden

J. N.

Nicholaichuk

T. P.

Gordon

Wong

S. C. P.

(2018). Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders. Psychological Assessment, 30(7), 941-955. https://doi.org/10.1037/pas0000538

34.

Olver

M. E.

Nicholaichuk

T. P.

Kingston

D. A.

Wong

S. C. P.

(2014). A multisite examination of sexual violence risk and therapeutic change. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 82(2), 312-324. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0035340

35.

Olver

M. E.

Wong

S. C. P.

Nicholaichuk

Gordon

(2007). The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: Assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change. Psychological Assessment, 19(3), 318-329. https://doi.org/10.1037/1040-3590.19.3.318

36.

Prochaska

J. O.

DiClemente

C. C.

Norcross

J. C.

(1992). In search of how people change: Applications to the addictive behaviors. American Psychologist, 47(9), 1102-1114. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.47.9.1102

37.

Quinsey

V. L.

Harris

G. T.

Rice

M. E.

Cormier

C. A.

(2006). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk. American Psychological Association.

38.

Rettenberger

Briken

Turner

Eher

(2015). Sexual offender recidivism among a population-based prison sample. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 59(4), 424-444. https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X13516732

39.

Rice

M. E.

Harris

G. T.

(2005). Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC area, Cohen’s d, and r. Law and Human Behavior, 29(5), 615-620. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10979-005-6832-7

40.

Rice

M. E.

Harris

G. T.

(2014). What does it mean when age is related to recidivism among sex offenders? Law and Human Behavior, 38(2), 151-161. https://doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000052

41.

Rockhill

Byrne

Rosner

Louie

M. M.

Colditz

(2003). Breast cancer risk prediction with a log-incidence model: Evaluation of accuracy. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 56(9), 856-861. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0895-4356(03)00124-0

42.

Sampson

R. J.

Laub

J. H.

(2003). Life-course desisters? Trajec-tories of crime among delinquent boys followed to age 70. Criminology, 41(3), 555-592. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2003.tb00997.x

43.

Skelton

Vess

(2008). Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk. Journal of Sexual Aggression, 14(3), 199-209. https://doi.org/10.1080/13552600802267098

44.

Sowden

J. N.

Olver

M. E.

(2017). Use of the Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offender Version and the Stable 2007 to assess sexual offender treatment change. Psychological Assessment, 29(3), 293-303. https://doi.org/10.1037/pas0000345

45.

Tabachnick

B. G.

Fidell

L. S.

(2007). Using multivariate statistics fifth edition. Allyn & Bacon.

46.

Thornton

(2006). Age and sexual recidivism: A variable connection. Sexual Abuse, 18(2), 123-135. https://doi.org/10.1177/107906320601800202

47.

van den Berg

J. W.

Smid

Schepers

Wever

van Beek

Janssen

Gijs

. (2018). The predictive properties of dynamic sex offender risk assessment instruments: A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment, 30(2), 179-191. https://doi.org/10.1037/pas0000454

48.

Wong

Olver

M. E.

Nicholaichuk

T. P.

Gordon

(2017). Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense Version. Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan.

Supplementary Material

Please find the following supplemental material available below.

For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.

For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.

0.00 MB

0.18 MB