Retrospective and Prospective Voting in Presidential-Year Elections

Abstract

This paper addresses the debate over whether retrospective or prospective economic voting has the greater impact on electoral behavior. Considering the presidential elections of 1984 and 1988, we develop models of the effects of economic evaluations on voting in presidential and congressional elections. First, we test this model for the overall electorate. Then, we divide our sample between voters who do and do not hold government economic policies responsible for fluctuations in personal and national well-being. We find that retrospective economic judgments have the stronger and more consistent impact on voting behavior in nearly every case. We discuss the implications of these findings for elections research.