Populists are often identified based on their behavior, but the discursive element of their identities is also a frequently observed characteristic of this type of leader. We examine the determinants of populist foreign policy rhetoric in the case of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. We argue that a leftist populist leader such as Chávez will focus on anti-imperialist themes, and we consider two mechanisms that may indicate the conditions under which he will use them: diversion, which would typically be expected from a populist, and capacity. We use time-series analysis of rhetorical data scraped from the entire corpus of Aló Presidente—Chávez’s weekly television series—to test our hypotheses. The evidence supports the capacity mechanism, that Chávez is emboldened to use anti-imperialist rhetoric when the price of oil is high. His rhetoric, thus, matches his resources and ability to provide domestic and international goods to support his own identity as a protector and savior of the common people from domestic and global elites engaged in the imperialistic enterprise.
ÁlvarezÁngel. 2007. “Venezuela 2007: Los Motores del Socialismo Se Alimentan con Petróleo.” Revista de Ciencia Política27:265–89.
2.
Arriagada-HerreraGenaro. 2006. “Petróleo y Gas en América Latina: Un Análisis Pólitico de Relaciones Internacionales a Partir de la Política Venezolana.” In Documentos de Trabajo, Vol. 20. Real Instituto Elcano de Estudios Internacionales y Estratégicos.
3.
CampelloDaniela. 2015. The Politics of Market Discipline in Latin America: Globalization and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
4.
CañizálezAndrés. 2012. Hugo Chávez: La Presidencia Mediática. Caracas: Editorial Alfa.
5.
ChryssogelosAngelos. 2010. “Undermining the West from Within: European Populists, the U.S. and Russia.” European View9 (2): 267–77.
6.
ChryssogelosAngelos. 2017. “Populism in Foreign Policy.” In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Foreign Policy Analysis, edited by ThiesCameron G. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
7.
CollierDavidLevitskySteven. 1997. “Democracy with Adjectives: Conceptual Innovation in Comparative Research”. World Politics, 49(3), 430-451.
8.
CollierRuth BerrinsCollierDavid. 1991. Shaping the Political Arena. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
9.
CorralesJavierPenfoldMichael. 2015. Dragon in the Tropics: The Legacy of Hugo Chávez. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
10.
CorralesJavierRomeroCarlos A. 2013. U.S.-Venezuela Relations since the 1990s. New York: Routledge.
11.
de la TorreCarlos. 2016. “Populism and the Politics of the Extraordinary in Latin America.” Journal of Political Ideologies21 (2): 121–39.
12.
DodsonMichaelDorrajManochehr. 2008. “Populism and Foreign Policy in Venezuela and Iran.” Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations9 (1): 71–87.
13.
DorrajManochehrDodsonMichael. 2009. “Neo-populism in Comparative Perspective: Iran and Venezuela.” Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East29 (1): 137–51.
14.
DoyleDavid. 2011. “The Legitimacy of Political Institutions: Explaining Contemporary Populism in Latin America.” Comparative Political Studies44 (11): 1447–73.
15.
Drekonja-KornatGerhard. 1986. “The Rise of Latin America’s Foreign Policy: Between Hegemony and Autonomy.” Latin American Research Review21:238–45.
16.
EllnerSteve. 2003. “The Contrasting Variants of the Populism of Hugo Chávez and Alberto Fujimori.” Journal of Latin American Studies35:139–62.
17.
FrajmanEduardo. 2014. “Broadcasting Populist Leadership: Hugo Chávez and Aló Presidente.” Journal of Latin American Studies46 (3): 501–26.
18.
FrenchJohn D.2009. “Understanding the Politics of Latin America’s Plural Lefts (Chávez/Lula): Social Democracy, Populism and Convergence on the Path to a Post-neoliberal World.” Third World Quarterly30 (2): 349–70.
19.
GerringJoh. 1999. “What Makes a Concept Good? A Criterial Framework for Understanding Concept Formation in the Social Sciences,” Polity31 (3): 357-393.
20.
GiacaloneRita. 2012. “Latin American Foreign Policy Analysis: External Influences and Internal Circumstances.” Foreign Policy Analysis8:335–54.
21.
GottRichard. 2008. “Venezuela under Hugo Chávez: The Originality of the ‘Bolivarian’ Project.” New Political Economy13:475–90.
22.
HawkinsKirk. 2009. “Is Chávez Populist? Measuring Populist Discourse in Comparative Perspective.” Comparative Political Studies42 (8): 1040–67.
23.
HeyJeanne. 1997. “Three Building Blocks of a Theory of Latin American Foreign Policy.” Third World Quarterly18:631–57.
24.
HidalgoManuel. 2008. “Hugo Chávez’s ‘Petro-Socialism.’” Journal of Democracy20:79–92.
25.
LiangChristina Shori. 2007. Europe for the Europeans: The Foreign and Security Policy of the Populist Radical Right. London: Routledge.
26.
LoveGregory J.WindsorLeah C.2018. “Populism and Popular Support: Vertical Accountability, Exogenous Events, and Leader Discourse in Venezuela.” Political Research Quarterly. Published electronically January 7. doi:10.1177/1065912917749752.
27.
MuddeCas. 2004. “The Populist Zeitgeist.” Government & Opposition39 (4): 541–63.
28.
MuddeCasKaltwasserRoviraCristóbal, eds. 2012. Populism in Europe and the Americas: Threat or Corrective for Democracy?Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
29.
MuddeCasKaltwasserRoviraCristóbal. 2014. “Populism and Political Leadership.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Leadership, edited by RhodesR. A. W.HartPaul ‘t, 376–88. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
30.
Pardos-PradoSergiSagarzazuIñaki. Forthcoming. “Economic Performance and Center-Periphery Conflicts in Party Competition.” Party Politics.
31.
PoertnerMathias. 2011. “Venezuelan Oil Diplomacy and Voting in the U.N. General Assembly.” Journal of International Service20:85–108.
32.
SekhriSofiane. 2009. “The Role Approach as a Theoretical Framework for the Analysis of Foreign Policy in Third World Countries.” African Journal of Political Science and International Relations3:423–32.
33.
SolazHectorCatherineDe Vries. Forthcoming. “Sweeping It Under the Rug: How Government Parties Deal with Deteriorating Economic Conditions.” Party Politics.
34.
SolisJonathanSagarzazuIñaki. 2017. “The Media Smells like Sulfur!!! Leaders and Verbal Attacks against the Fourth Estate in Partial Democracies”. Annual Meeting of the Midwest political Science Association. Chicago, IL.
35.
SoltFrederick. 2001. “Diversionary Nationalism: Economic Inequality and the Formation of National Pride.” Journal of Politics73 (3): 821–30.
36.
SpanakosAnthony Peter. 2008. “New Wine, Old Bottles, Flamboyant Sommelier: Chávez, Citizenship and Populism.” New Political Science30 (4): 521–44.
37.
SylviaRonald D.DanopoulosConstantine P. 2003. “The Chávez Phenomenon: Political Change in Venezuela.” Third World Quarterly34:63–76.
38.
TaggartPaul. 2000. Populism. Philadelphia: Open University Press.
39.
TavitsMargitPotterJoshua D. 2015. “The Effect of Inequality and Identity on Party Strategies.” American Journal of Political Science59 (3): 744–58.
40.
ThiesCameron G.2010. “Role Theory and Foreign Policy.” In The International Studies Compendium, edited by DenemarkRobert A., Vol. X, 6335-6356. West Sussex: Wiley-Blackwell.
41.
ThiesCameron G.2017. “Role Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis in Latin America.” Foreign Policy Analysis13 (3): 662–81.
42.
TrinkunasHarold A.2005. “Defining Venezuela’s ‘Bolivarian Revolution.’” Military Review, July–August, 39–44.
43.
TsafosNikos E.2007. “Big Oil and Big Talk: Resource Populism in International Politics.” SAIS Review of International Affairs27 (1): 147–57.
44.
VerbeekB.ZasloveA. 2015. “The Impact of Populist Radical Right Parties on Foreign Policy: The Northern League as a Junior Coalition Partner in the Berlusconi Governments.” European Political Science Review7 (4): 525–46.
45.
WeylandKurt. 2001. “Clarifying a Contested Concept: Populism in the Study of Latin American Politics.” Comparative Politics34 (1): 1–22.
46.
WeylandKurt. 2009. “The Rise of Latin America’s Two Lefts? Insights from Rentier State Theory.” Comparative Politics41:145–64.
47.
ZúqueteJosé Pedro. 2008. “The Missionary Politics of Hugo Chávez.” Latin American Politics and Society50:91–121.
