This article examines the effect of crime on support for criminal justice systems in Latin America. Scholars empirically demonstrate a strong negative effect of crime on support for institutions and satisfaction with democracy. Others provide thick descriptions of the prevalence of creeping authoritarianism in response to crime—the infamous “mano dura” or “iron fist.” I test the effectiveness of elite political messaging across different countries. In other words, do politicians that promote “iron-fist” policies reassure their intended audience and shore up support for the police and the criminal justice system? Analyzing survey data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project and Wiesehomeier and Benoit’s expert survey of Latin American political party platforms, I find that elite political opinion about insecurity conditions the effect of crime victimization and fear of crime on mass support for the police and the justice system as well as on perceptions of police and justice system effectiveness. When political elites emphasize mano dura (“iron fist”) solutions, fearful citizens and victims are less critical of the police and the justice system in general.
AhmadN.HubickeyV.McNamaraFIV. (2011). Trust in the national police. AmericasBarometer Insights: 201, 59, 1–1.
2.
BatesonR. (2010, 108). Crime, impunity, and the popular deligitimization of human rights in Guatemala. Paper presented at LASA2010: XXIX International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association, Toronto, ON.
3.
BatesonR. (2012). Crime victimization and political participation. American Political Science Review, 106, 570–587.
4.
BergmanM. S. (2006). Crime and citizen security in Latin America. Latin American Research Review, 41, 213–227.
5.
BergmanM.WhiteheadL. (2009). Criminality, public security, and the challenge to democracy in Latin America. Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press.
6.
BoatengF. D. (2016). Neighborhood-level effects on trust in the police: A multilevel analysis. International Criminal Justice Review, 26, 217–236.
7.
BoothJ. A.SeligsonM. A. (2009). The legitimacy puzzle in Latin America. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
CaoL.ZhaoJ. S. (2005). Confidence in the police in Latin America. Journal of Criminal Justice, 33, 403–412.
10.
CarrerasM. (2013). The impact of criminal violence on regime legitimacy in Latin America. Latin American Research Review, 48, 85–107.
11.
CeobanuA. M.WoodC. H.RibeiroL. (2011). Crime victimization and public support for democracy: Evidence from Latin America. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 23, 56–78.
12.
ChevignyP. (2003). The populism of fear. Punishment and Society, 5, 77–96.
13.
ChongD. M.DruckmanJ. N. (2007). Framing public opinion in competitive democracies. American Political Science Review, 101, 637–655.
14.
ChuD.SongJ. H. J.DombrinkJ. (2005). Chinese immigrants’ perceptions of the police in New York City. International Criminal Justice Review, 15, 101–114.
CruzJ. M. (2011). Criminal violence and democratization in Central America: Survival of the violent state. Latin American Politics & Society, 53, 1–33.
17.
CruzJ. M. (2015). Police misconduct and political legitimacy in Central America. Journal of Latin American Studies, 47, 251–283.
18.
Delli-KarpiniM. X.KeeterS. (1996). What Americans know about politics and why it matters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
DruckmanJ. N. (2004). Priming the vote. Political Psychology, 25, 577–594.
21.
EastonD. (1965). A framework for political analysis. New York, NY: Prentice Hall.
22.
EastonD. (1975). A reassessment of the concept of political support. British Journal of Political Science, 5, 43–57.
23.
El Peruano. (2011, 44). El estado debe responder. p. 5
24.
FeldmanS.StennerK. (1997). Perceived threat & authoritarianism. Political Psychology, 18, 741–77.
25.
FernandezK. E.KuenziM. (2010). Crime and support for democracy in Africa and Latin America. Political Studies, 58, 450–471.
26.
FruhlingH. (2012). A realistic look at community policing in Latin America. Policing and Society, 22, 76–88.
27.
GabbidonS. L.HigginsG. E. (2009). The Role of race/ethnicity and race relations on public opinion related to the treatment of blacks by police. Police Quarterly, 12, 102–115.
28.
Garzon-VergaraJ. C. (2015). Tough on the weak, weak on the tough: Drug laws and policing. Washington, D.C: Latin American Program.
29.
HollandA. C. (2013). Right on crime? Conservative party politics and mano dura policies in El Salvador. Latin American Research Review, 48, 44–67.
30.
HuddyL.FeldmanS.TaberC.LahavG. (2005). Threat, anxiety, and support for antiterrorism policies. American Journal of Political Science, 49, 593–608.
31.
IvkovicS. K. (2008). A comparative study of public support for the police. International Criminal Justice Review, 18, 406–434.
32.
JacobsL. R.ShapiroR. Y. (1994). Issues, candidate image, and priming. American Political Science Review, 88, 527–54.
33.
JangH.JooH.ZhaoJ. (2010). Determinants of public confidence in police. Journal of Criminal Justice, 38, 57–68.
34.
JohnsonS.FormanJ. M.BlissK. (2012). Police reform in Latin America: Implications for U.S. policy. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies.
35.
KrauseK. (2013). Supporting the iron fist: News media and public attitudes toward crime in Latin America (Doctoral dissertation, Notre Dame, IN, University of Notre Dame).
36.
KrauseK. (2014). Supporting the iron fist: Crime news, public opinion, and authoritarian crime control in Guatemala. Latin American Politics & Society, 56, 98–119.
37.
KwakD.San MiguelC. E.CarreonD. L. (2012). Political legitimacy and public confidence in police: An analysis of attitudes toward Mexican police. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies and Management, 35, 124–146.
LodgeM.TaberC. S. (2013). The rationalizing voter. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
40.
MaestasC.AtkesonL. R. (2012). Catastrophic politics. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
41.
MaloneM. T. (2010). The verdict is in: The impact of crime on public trust in Central American justice systems. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 3, 99–128.
42.
MaloneM. T. (2012). The rule of law in Central America: Citizens reactions to crime and punishment. New York, NY: Bloomsbury.
43.
MaloneM. T. (2013). Does crime undermine public support for democracy? Findings from the case of Mexico. The Latin Americanist, 57, 17–43.
44.
MarcusG. E.MacKuenM.NeumanW. R. (2011). Parsimony and complexity: Developing and testing theories of affective intelligence. Political Psychology, 32, 323–336.
45.
MarcusG. E.NeumanW. R.MacKuenM. (2000). Affective intelligence and political judgment. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.
46.
MarcusG. E.SullivanJ. L.Theiss-MorseE.StevensD. (2005). The emotional foundation of political cognition. Political Psychology, 26, 949–963.
47.
MerollaJ. L.MeziniE.ZechmeisterE. J. (2013). Crime, economic crisis, and support for democracy in Mexico [Special Issue]. Political Challenges in Mexico. 221–251
48.
MerollaJ. L.ZechmeisterE. J. (2009). Democracy at risk. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.
49.
MorganJ.BuiceM. (2013). Latin American attitudes toward women in politics: The influence of elite cues, female advancement, and individual characteristics. American Political Science Review, 107, 644–662.
50.
MuggahR.Szabo de CarvalhoI.AlvaradoN.MarmolejoL.WangR. (2016). Making cities safer: Citizen security innovations from Latin America. Igarapé Institute, Inter-American Development Bank. Retrieved fromhttps://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/7757
51.
NivetteA.E. (2016). Institutional ineffectiveness, illegitimacy, and public support for vigilantism in Latin America. Criminology, 54, 142–175.
52.
PerezO. J. (2004). Democratic legitimacy and public insecurity: Crime and democracy in El Salvador and Guatemala. Political Science Quarterly, 118, 627–644.
53.
ReisigM. D.ParksR. B. (2000). Experience, quality of life, and neighborhood context: A hierarchical analysis of satisfaction with police. Justice Quarterly, 17, 607–629.
54.
RomeroV.MagaloniB.Diaz-CayerosA. (2016). Presidential approval and public security in Mexico’s war on crime. Latin American Politics & Society, 58, 100–123.
55.
SabetD. (2012). Corruption or insecurity? Understanding dissatisfaction with Mexico’s police. Latin American Politics and Society, 55, 22–45.
56.
SalesS. M. (1972). Economic threat as a determinant of conversion rates in authoritarian and non-authoritarian churches. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 23, 420–428.
57.
SampsonR. J.BartuschD. J. (1998). Legal cynicism and subcultural tolerance of deviance: The neighborhood context of racial differences. Law and Society Review, 32, 777–804.
58.
SampsonR. J.RaudenbushS. W.EarlsF. (1997). Neighborhoods and violent crime: A multilevel study of collective efficacy. Science, 277, 918–924.
59.
SarsfieldR.EchegarayF. (2005). Opening the black box: How satisfaction with democracy and its perceived efficacy affect regime preference in Latin America. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 18, 153–173.
60.
SchaapD.ScheepersP. (2014). Comparing citizens’ trust in the police across European countries: An assessment of cross-country measurement equivalence. International Criminal Justice Review, 24, 82–98.
61.
SchuberthM. (2016). Beyond gang truces and mano dura policies: Toward substitutive security governance in Latin America. Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 5, 1–2.
62.
SchuckA. M.RosenbaumD. P.HawkinsD. F. (2008). The influence of race/ethnicity, social class, and neighborhood context on residents’ attitudes toward the police. Police Quarterly, 11, 496–519.
63.
SotirovicM. (2003). How individuals explain social problems: The influences of media use. Political Communication, 53, 122–137
64.
StackS. J.CaoL. (1998). Political conservatism and confidence in the police: A comparative analysis. Journal of Crime and Justice, 21, 71–76.
65.
SwansonK. (2013). Zero tolerance in Latin America: Punitive paradox in urban policy mobilities. Urban Geography, 34, 972–988.
66.
UangR. S. (2012). Careful crackdowns: Human rights and campaigning on public security in Latin America. (Doctoral dissertation, Austin, TX, University Texas-Austin).
67.
UangR. S. (2013). Campaigning on public security in Latin America: Obstacles to success. Latin American Politics & Society, 55, 26–51.
68.
UngarM. (2011). Policing democracy: Overcoming obstacles to citizen security in Latin America. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
