Abstract
Background
Modeling is one of the engineering analyses that can predict most of the accidents and thus reduce damages caused by them.
Objective
In this paper, an effort is made to forecast the fire accident and physical consequences in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in the period 2002–2021 by one of the statistical models known as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.
Methods
This retrospective investigation performed in the year 2023 within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Information, including injuries and fatalities, as well as fire accidents occurring between 2002 and 2021, was obtained from a database. Those were related to the entire Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To forecast the variables under examination, the ARIMA model, developed by Box and Jenkins, was employed. Statistical analyses were conducted using Minitab software.
Results
The results showed that the number of accidents, injuries, deaths, and population are increasing from 2002 to 2021. It is observed that forecasted values of injuries per 100,000 persons and accidents per 100,000 persons due to fire in KSA have increasing trends, and forecasted values of deaths per 100,000 persons, injuries per 1000 accidents, and deaths per 1000 accidents had decreasing trends. Also, the results indicated that the proposed model would be well-fitted to forecast the studied parameters.
Conclusions
Based on the findings, the ARIMA technique has robust performance and high accuracy for forecasting fire accidents and physical consequences.
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