Judgmental biases that may affect the outcome of simulation model validation are discussed. Recommendations for reducing the impact of judgmental bias on the design of simulation models and games are provided. A validation process that evaluates the potential impact of judgmental bias will improve model validity.
Ajzen, I.
(1997). Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 303-314.
2.
Balci, O.
, & Nance, R. E. (1985). Formulated problem verification as an explicit requirement of model credibility. Simulation, 45, 76-86.
3.
Bar-Hillel, M.
(1980). The base rate fallacy in probability judgements. Acta Psychology, 44, 211-233.
4.
Barron, F H.
, & John, R. (1980). Reference effects: A sheep in wolf's clothing. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 25, 365-374.
5.
Crookall, D.
(1995). A guide to the literature of simulation/gaming. In D. Crookall & K. Arai (Eds.), Simulation and gaming across disciplines and cultures (pp. 151-177). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
6.
DeLamater, J.
(1982). Response-effects of question content. In W. Dijkstra & J. van der Zouwen (Eds.), Response behavior in the survey interview (pp. 13-46). London: Academic Press.
7.
Einhorn, H. J.
(1980). Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making. In T. S. Wallsten (Ed.), Cognitive processes in choice and decision behavior (pp. 1-20). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
8.
Fischhoff, B.
(1975). Hindsight and foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288-299.
9.
Fischhoff, B.
(1978). Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem presentation. Journal of Experimental Psychology, Human Perception and Performance, 4, 342-355.
10.
Fischhoff, B.
(1980). For those condemned to study the past: Reflections on historical judgment. In R. A. Shweder (Ed.), Fallible judgment in behavioral research (pp. 79-84.) San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
11.
Fischhoff, B.
, & Blyth, R. (1975). I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once future things. Organizational Behavior in Human Performance, 13, 1-16.
12.
Fischhoff, B.
, Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 552-564.
13.
Gass, S. I.
(1977). Evaluation of complex models. Computers and Operations Research, 4, 25.
14.
Gruhl, J.
(1982). Model credibility and independent evaluation: Three case studies. Omega, 10, 526-537.
15.
Hogarth, R. M.
, & Makridakis, S. (1981). Forecasting and planning: An evaluation. Management Science, 27, 115-138.
16.
Kahneman, D.
, & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237-351.
17.
Kahneman, D.
, & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263-291.
18.
Kleindorfer, G. B.
, & Ganeshan, R. (1993). The philosophy of science and validation in simulation. In G. W. Evans, M. Mollaghasemi, E. C. Russell, & W. E. Biles (Eds.), Proceedings of the 1993 Winter Simulation Conference (pp. 50-57). Lake Buena Vista, CA: IEEE.
19.
Kunruether, H.
(1977). Limited knowledge and insurance protection. Public Policy, 24, 227-261.
20.
Langer, E. J.
(1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 311-328.
21.
Langer, E. J.
, & Roth, J. (1975). Heads I win, tails it's chance: The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 951-955.
22.
Law, A. M.
, & Kelton, D. (1982). Simulation modeling and analysis. New York: McGraw-Hill.
23.
Lichtenstein, S.
, & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?Organizational Behavior of Human Performance, 20, 159-183.
24.
Makridakis, S.
, & Wheelwright, S. C. (Eds.). (1979). Forecasting. New York: North-Holland.
25.
Moskowitz, M.
, Schaefer, R. E., & Borcherding, K. (1976). Irrationality of managerial judgments: Implications for information systems. Omega, 4, 125-140.
26.
Nisbett, R. E.
, & Ross, L. (1980). Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
27.
Nisbett, R. E.
, & Wilson, T. D. (1977). Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. Psychological Review, 84 (3), 231-259.
28.
Rawls, J.
(1971). A theory of justice. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
29.
Sage, A. P.
(1981). Behavioral and organizational considerations in the design of information systems and processes for planning and decision support. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 11, 640-679.
30.
Shannon, R. E.
(1975). Systems simulation: The art and science. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
31.
Slovic, P.
, & Lichtenstein, S. (1971). Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information systems and processes for planning and decision support. Organizational Behavior in Human Performance, 6, 649-744.
32.
Tversky, A.
(1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207-232.
33.
Tversky, A.
, & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1123-1124.
34.
Tversky, A.
, & Kahneman, D. (1980). Casual schemas in judgments under uncertainty. In M. Fishbein (Ed.), Progress in social psychology (Vol. 1). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
35.
Tversky, A.
, & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 192, 453-458.
36.
Velayas, J. M.
, & Levary, R. R. (1987). Validation of simulation models using decision theory. Simulation, 48, 87-92.
37.
Weber, E. U.
, & Coskunoglu, O. (1990). Descriptive and prescriptive models of decision making: Implications for the development of decision aids. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 20, 310-316.
