Overconfidence and Disposition Effect in Indian Equity Market: An Empirical Evidence

Abstract

The article investigates the presence of the disposition effect and overconfidence in the Indian equity market during 2006–2013 and provides some robust empirical evidence. It applies bivariate and trivariate vector autoregression (VAR) models and associated impulse response functions on the Indian equity market from NIFTY 50 index and individual security returns. The study arrives at three key findings. First, the presence of the biases, overconfidence and the disposition effect is detected in Indian equity market for our sample period. Second, the impact of these two biases can be distinctly segregated for 20 companies among the companies in the index. Lastly, the overconfidence bias is found to be predominant of the two. The study endorses the fact that like other developing markets, the Indian markets are not so efficient with respect to overconfidence and the disposition effect. This article is one of the few to provide empirical evidence for the behavioural issues (i.e., overconfidence and the disposition effect) at a market level that is otherwise studied at the individual investor level.