The Determinants of COVID-19 Diffusion in India: A State-level Analysis

Abstract

The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in India on 30 January 2020. Subsequently, the disease spread across all states and union territories (UTs). However, the literature has not adequately addressed the differential nature of COVID-19 diffusion across states and over time as the pandemic progressed and its determinants. The article examines the role of demographic and socio-economic factors in COVID-19 diffusion across states and assesses the relative significance of these variables in diffusion as the pandemic progressed. We specify a regression model relating cumulative cases per million to demographic and socio-economic variables for a cross-section of states and UTs of India. We use ordinary least squares and quantile regression estimation techniques for discrete time points corresponding to the two waves and for the subsequent period to identify explanatory variables’ relative role in diffusion. Results confirm the differential effects of demographic and socio-economic factors on COVID-19 diffusion in the progression of the pandemic. Urbanisation, per capita income, literacy, share of the 60-plus population and proportion of vulnerable populations with health risks are identified as key predictors of spread. Results of the study confirm that demographic and socio-economic variations across states are predictors of COVID-19 diffusion. The diffusion pattern suggests these variables’ significance for policymaking in future pandemic control and management.