New Dimensions of Security

1 A leader of the Northern League that recently established itself as a regional party in Italy by recording considerable success in municipal elections, quoted in Frank Viviano, `Separatist Party on the Rise in Italy', San Francisco Chronicle, 3 March 1993, p. 1.

2 The quotes are from Leslie H. Gelb, `Smog of Peace,' New York Times, 9 May 1993, Sec. 4, p. 15.

3 See, for example, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control: Global Turmoil on the Eve of the Twenty First-Century (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1993); Samuel P. Huntington, `The Clash of Civilizations?' Foreign Affairs, Vol. 72 (Summer 1993), pp. 22-49; Kenneth Jowitt, New World Disorder: The Leninist Extinction (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992); Joel Kotkin, Tribes: How Race, Religion and Identity Determine Success in the New Global Economy (New York: Random House, 1993); Antoni Kuklinski, ed., Globality versus Locality (Warsaw: Institute of Space Economy, University of Warsaw, 1990); Ronnie D. Lipschutz, `Reconstructing World Politics: The Emergence of Global Civil Society', Millennium, Vol. 21 (Winter 1992), pp. 389-420; Zdravko Mlinar, ed., globalization and Territorial Identities (Aldershot: Avebury, 1992); and Max Singer & Aaron Wildavsky, The Real World Order: Zones of Peace/Zones of Turmoil (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1993).

4 Noteworthy exceptions are Joseph A. Camilleri & Jim Falk, The End of Sovereignty? The Politics of a Shrinking and Fragmenting World (Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1992), and Michael Zurn, `Globalization and Individualization as Challenge for World Politics,' paper presented at the 34th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association (Acapulco, Mexico: 23-27 March 1993).

5 For the original formulation of the fragmentation concept, see James N. Rosenau, ` “Fragmegrative” Challenges to National Security', in Terry L. Heyns, ed., Understanding US Strategy: A Reader (Washington, DC: National Defense University, 1983), pp. 65-82.

6 Globalizing and centralizing processes are conceived to be any developments that facilitate the expansion of authority, activities, and interests beyond the existing (usually national) territorial boundaries, whereas localizing and decentralizing processes involve any developments in which the scope of authority and action undergoes contraction and reverts to concerns, issues, groups, and/or institutions that are less encompassing than whatever territorial or socially constructed boundaries may prevail. For further elaborations of these distinctions, see James N. Rosenau, `The Person, The Household, The Community, and The Globe: Notes for a Theory of Multilateralism in a Turbulent World', paper presented at the UNU Symposium on Theoretical Perspectives on Multilateralism and Images of World Order (Florence: European University Institute, September 1992), and James N. Rosenau, `The Processes of Globalization: Substantive Spillovers, Elusive Exchanges, and Subtle Symbols', paper presented at the 60th Congress de l'Association Canadienne-Francaise pour l'Advancement des Sciences (Montreal, 13 May 1992).

7 James N. Rosenau, Turbulence in World Politics: A Theory of Change and Continuity (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990), Chaps 1 and 5.

8 For incisive examples of inquires that have no difficulty positing profound transformations in the context of unchanging structures, see Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981); Eugene B. Skolnikoff, The Elusive Transformation: Science, Technology, and the Evolution of International Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993; and Harry Gelber, Sovereignty Through Interdependence: The Reassertion of the State in the G5, 1970-1993 (forthcoming).

9 Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979), p. 94. For an analysis that posits states as more powerful and effective than ever, see Ted Robert Gurr, `War, Revolution and the Growth of the Coercive State', in James Caporaso, ed., The Elusive State: International and Comparative Perspectives (Newbury Park, CA: SAGE, 1989), Chap. 3

10 For an elaborate effort to delineate the nature of change in world politics that identifies (rather than solves) the measurement problem, see Rosenau, Turbulence in World Politics, Chap. 4.

11 For a discussion of how cascades can serve as useful analytic units, see Rosenau, Turbulence in World Politics, pp. 298-305.

12 Kenichi Ohmae, The Borderless World: Power and Strategy in the Interlinked Economy (New York: Harper Collins, 1990).

13 For analyses of the transformations which are presently lessening the scope and competence of modern states, see James N. Rosenau, `The State in an Era of Cascading Politics: Wavering Concept, Widening Competence, Withering Colossus, or Weathering Change?' in Caporaso (ed.), The Elusive State, pp. 17-48, and James N. Rosenau, `Changing States in a Changing World', paper prepared for Working Group 4 of the Commission on Global Governance (xerox, May 1993).

14 The custodial metaphor is noted in Dennis Farney, `Even US Politics Are Being Reshaped by a Global Economy', Wall Street Journal, 28 October 1992, p. 1.

15 Yale H. Ferguson & Richard W. Mansbach, `The Past as Prelude to the Future: Changing Loyalties in Global Politics', paper presented at the 34th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association (Acapulco, Mexico, 23-27 March 1993), p. 3 (italics in the original).

16 James H. Mittelman, `The Dynamics of Globalization', International Political Economy Yearbook (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, forthcoming).

17 James H. Mittelman, `Global Restructuring of Production and Migration', in Yoshikazu Sakamoto, ed., Global Structural Change (Tokyo: United Nations University Press, forthcoming).

18 Ferguson & Mansbach, `The Past as Prelude to the Future', p. 24.

19 Kenichi Ohmae, `The Rise of the Region State', Foreign Affairs, Vol. 72 (Spring 1993), p. 78.

20 Ohmae, `The Rise of the Region State', pp. 78-79.

21 Michael Clough & David Doerge, Global Changes and Domestic Transformations: New Possibilities for American Foreign Policy: Report of a Vantage Conference (Muscatine, IA: The Stanley Foundation, 1992), p. 9. For indicators that a similar process is occurring in the Southwest without the approval of Washington, DC, or Mexico City, see Cathryn L. Thorup, Redefining Governance in North America: The Impact of Cross-Border Networks and Coalitions on Mexican Immigration into the United States (Santa Monica, CA: The Rand Corporation, 1993). Although using a different label (`tribes'), a broader discussion of regional states can be found in Kotkin, Tribes.

22 Ohmae, `The Rise of the Region State', p. 83.

23 An extended analysis leading to this conclusion is provided by Charles R. Kennedy, Jr., `Relations Between Transnational Corporations and Governments of Host Countries: A Look to the Future', Transnational Corporations, Vol. 1 (February 1992), pp. 67-92.

24 `The Fall of Big Business', The Economist, 17 April 1993, pp. 13, 14.

25 `The Global Firm: R.I.P.', The Economist, 6 February 1993, p. 69.

26 `The Global Firm', p. 69.

27 Ricardo Petrella, `Techno-Racism: The City-States of the Global Market Will Create a “New Apartheid” ', The Toronto Star, 9 May 1992.

28 Ibid.

29 Rosenau, Turbulence in World Politics, Chap. 13.

30 Marlise Simons, `A Reborn Provencal Heralds Revival of Regional Tongues,' New York Times, 3 May 1993, pp. 1, A8.

31 Cf. James N. Rosenau, `Organizational Proliferation in a Changing World', paper presented to Working Group 4 of the Independent Commission on Global Governance (Geneva, 30 May 1993).

32 See, for example, Alison Mitchell, `Russian Emigres Importing Thugs to Commit Contract Crimes in US', New York Times, 11 April 1992, p. 1, or Joseph B. Treaster, `Beyond Immigrants' Voyage, Long Reach of Chinese Gang', New York Times, 9 June 1993, p. 1.

33 David Binder, `European Gypsies Issue Call for Human Rights at Meeting', New York Times, 5, May 1993, p. A12.

34 For an extended discussion of the roles that social movements play in world affairs, see R.B.J. Walker, One World, Many Worlds: Struggles for a Just World Peace (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1988).

35 Camilleri, `Rethinking Sovereignty in a Shrinking, Fragmented World', p. 35.

36 Derek Leebaert, `Innovations and Private Initiatives,' Washington Quarterly, Vol. 15 (Spring 1992), p. 115.

37 Benjamin R. Barber, `Jihad vs. McWorld,' Atlantic Monthly (March 1992), pp. 54-55.

38 For extended essays on the links between globalization and culture, see Mike Featherstone, ed., Global Culture: Nationalism, Globalization and Modernity (London: SAGE, 1990), and Ronnie D. Lipschutz, `Heteronomia: The Emergence of Global Civil Society,' a paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Atlanta, GA, 31 March-4 April 1992.

39 See Larry Diamond, `The Globalization of Democracy,' in R. Slater, B. Schutz, & Steven Doerr, eds, Global Transformation and the Third World (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1993), pp. 31-69, and Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991).

40 Gerald B. Helman & Steven R. Ratner, `Saving Failed States,' Foreign Policy, No. 89 (Winter 1992-93), p. 3. Failed states have also been referred to as `stateless countries' (John Darnton, `Zaire Drifts into Anarchy as Authority Collapses', New York Times, 24 May 1994, p. 1). For another compelling formulation of how the world should address the challenge of situations `where governments have crumbled and the most basic conditions for civilized life have disappeared', see Paul Johnson, `Colonialism's Back - and Not a Moment Too Soon', New York Times Magazine, 18 April 1993, pp. 22, 43-44.

41 Edward A. Gargan, `Challenge to India's Leaders: Survived but Weakly', New York Times, 27 February 1993.

42 Craig R. Whitney, `With Europe in Flux, No More Politics as Usual', New York Times, 4 April 1993, p. 3.

43 Alan Riding, `France Questions Its Identity As It Sinks Into “Le Malaise” ', New York Times, 23 December 1990, pp. 1, 7.

44 See, for example, Alan Cowell, `Italy's “Moral Crumbling” ', New York Times, 30 March 1993, p. A10.

45 Present-day Russia is so lacking in shared underlying values that recently a widespread and intense debate surfaced over how the words of the national anthem should be revised to reflect the country's post-Communist circumstances. More than 4,000 citizens submitted new wording, but thus far no proposal has engendered broad support. See Fred Hiatt, `Those Russian Anthem Blues', Washington Post, 9 March 1993, p. 1.

46 Gerald Segal, `Beijing's Fading Clout', New York Times, 25 May 1994, p. A15, and Patrick E. Tyler, `Discontent Mounts in China, Shaking the Leaders', New York Times, 10 April 1994.

47 Edward A. Gargan, `Afghanistan, Always Riven, Is Breaking Into Ethnic Parts', New York Times, 14 January 1994 p. 1.

48 David E. Sanger, `$50 Million Discovered in Raids On Arrested Japanese Politician', New York Times, 10 March 1993, p. 1.

49 Youssef M. Ibrahm, `Muslems' Fury Falls on Egypt's Christians', New York Times, 15 March 1993, p. 1. A more general expression of concern can be found in Canon J. Ciarlo, `The Challenge of the Sects', The [Malta] Times, 8 April 1993.

50 For data plainly supporting this interpretation, see Ole R. Holsti & James N. Rosenau, `The Structure of Foreign Policy Beliefs Among American Opinion Leaders - After the Cold War', paper presented at the 34th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Acapulco, Mexico, 23-27 March 1993. For a cogent analysis of how the foreign policy cleavages at work in the United States have been accelerated by the dynamics of fragmegration and `the growing impact of ethnic politics on foreign policy', see Michael Clough, `The Changing Character of American Foreign Policy' (xerox).

51 The conception of global tribes can be found in Kotkin, Tribes, and Dennis Farney, `Even US Politics Are Being Reshaped by a Global Economy', Wall Street Journal, 28 October 1992, p. 1.

52 For a cogent case analysis of the subtlety of authority transfers to transnational entities, see Timothy J. Sinclair, `Financial Knowledge as Governance', paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Acapulco, 23-27 March 1993.

53 For explorations of the subtlety of centralizing shifts, see the various essays in James N. Rosenau & Ernst-Otto Czempiel, eds, Governance Without Government: Order and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992).

54 For an extended analysis of the sources and nature of authority crises that have become global in scope, see Rosenau, Turbulence in World Politics. See also Sidney Tarrow, `The Globalization of Conflict: “Isn't This Where We Came In?” ' paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC: August 1991.

55 The processes through which the globalization of conflict occurs are subjected to close analysis in James N. Rosenau, `The Relocation of Authority in a Shrinking World: From Tiananmen Square in Beijing to the Soccer Stadium in Soweto via Parliament Square in Budapest and Wencelas Square in Prague', Comparative Politics, Vol. 24 (April 1992), pp. 253-272.

56 The Emulative processes underlying the globalization of cooperation are assessed in James N. Rosenau, `Interdependence and the Simultaneity Puzzle: Notes on the Outbreak of Peace,' in C.W. Kegley, Jr., ed., The Long Postwar Peace: Contending Explanations and Projections (New York: Harper Collins, 1991, pp. 307-328.

57 John Gerard Ruggie, `Territoriality and Beyond: Problematizing Modernity in International Relations,' International Organization, Vol. 47 (Winter 1993), p. 174.

58 William W. Lewis & Marvin Harris, `Why Globalization Must Prevail', The McKinsey Quarterly, 1992, No. 2, p. 115.

59 Michael Zurn, `What Has Changed in Europe? The Challenge of Globalization and Individualization', paper presented at a Meeting on What Has Changed? Competing Perspectives on World Order (Copenhagen, 14-16 May 1993), p. 40.

60 Zurn, `What Has Changed in Europe?' p. 41.

61 Zurn, `What Has Changed in Europe?' pp. 41, 43.

62 Zurn, `What Has Changed in Europe?' p. 43.

63 This is not to imply that localizing processes will attenuate. Rather the hypothesis presumes they will increasingly co-exist with the tendencies toward globalization, sometimes harmoniously and sometimes conflictfully, but at no time reaching a point of mutual exclusivity that leads to their attenuation.

64 Rosenau, Turbulence in World Politics, pp. 429-430.

65 Of course, there are bound to be moments or issues that require people to act on behalf of one of their affiliations and, in so doing, to act counter to the goals of another organization with which they are associated. But there is no necessary reason why such choices have to be consistent. Circumstances vary, values change, people learn, and as a result opting for one organization at one moment in time does not preclude acting contrary to its interests at another moment. As two astute observers put it,'... human beings today identify themselves in a variety of ways with relevance to politics. As a result, they are enmeshed in a multitude of authoritative networks, have loyalties to a variety of authorities, and distribute the resources they control (including their own labor) depending upon the relative importance of these networks to them. Each of these networks has the potential to mobilize its adherents to action in the context of issues which touch their interests and/or excite their passions' (Ferguson & Mansbach, `The Past as Prelude to the Future', p. 4).

66 For a lengthy analysis of the presumption that the macro-structures and processes of world politics are substantially shaped by people at the micro-level, see Rosenau, Turbulence in World Politics, Chaps 9 and 13.

67 Ronnie D. Lipschutz, `Learning of the Green World: Global Environmental Change, Global Civil Society and Social Learning', paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Acapulco, 23-27 March 1993.

68 Peter Sloterdijk, `Nationality - A View From Above and Within,' Bard College Bulletin (Spring 1991), p. 5.

69 Lewis & Harris, `Why Globalization Must Prevail', pp. 130-131.

70 Roberto C. Goizueta, `The Challenges of Getting What You Wished For,' remarks presented to the Arthur Page Society, Amelia Island, FL, 21 September 1992.