The prognosis of severe lupus nephritis based on the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study estimated glomerular filtration rate

Abstract

The level of renal function at biopsy is predictive of outcome in patients with severe lupus nephritis (SLN). While renal function has been based on serum creatinine (SCr) alone, measuring the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) utilizing the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation has been found to be more accurate. The MDRD eGFR (ml/min/1.73 m²) at biopsy was calculated in 86 patients with SLN and patients were categorized based on eGFR: ≥60 (33 pts), 59–30 (33 pts) and <30 (20 pts). An eGFR was <60 in 18% of patients with a normal SCr. After 120 ± 65 months of follow-up, attainment of a complete remission (76% versus 30% versus 10%, p < 0.0001) and patient survival without end-stage renal disease (ESRD; 10 year survival: 85% versus 45% versus 14%, p < 0.0001 overall) was highest in patients with an eGFR ≥60 and lowest in those with an eGFR <30. The long-term prognosis for patients with severe lupus nephritis and an eGFR ≥60 was extremely good. Since the prognosis for patients with an eGFR <60 was poor even in those patients with a normal SCr, renal function is more accurately determined by the MDRD eGFR.