Exploring the nexus between urbanization dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions: A comparative analysis of CO 2 trends in BRICS economies

Abstract

With an increased population, resource depletion, energy consumption, and carbon emissions have tended to increase manifold. Thus, it is an imperative concern all over the globe. However, targeting BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations entails static significance as BRICS are not only the developed economies yet those economies that generate major share of the global emissions. Therefore, the current study delves into the interconnectedness among CO₂ emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, urbanization, fossil fuel energy consumption, foreign direct investment, and energy usage within the BRICS economies. The increased urbanization which is a result of increased population and globalization incurs imperative influences on carbon emissions. Besides, the greenhouses have been renowned as leading channel that generates carbon emissions. Therefore, their long-run cointegration along with their dynamic contribution needs to be analyzed comparatively. This research uses the time series data from 1990 to 2024. The literature mainly focuses on the combined cointegration of these forces for BRICS nations. Conversely, this study also entails a panel estimation for these nations in order to analyze the magnitude contribution of the considered variables. For statistical analysis employing the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bounds testing, panel quantile regression, and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality testing approaches, we scrutinize the long-term causal relationships between all variables. The empirical findings reveal the existence of long-term equilibrium cointegration among the variables. In essence, our study concludes that in the case of BRICS economies, the level of CO₂ emissions is significantly influenced by urbanization and greenhouse gas emissions.