Energy consumption inequality in China: What can an agent-based model tell us?

Abstract

China is a major energy consumer, however, related empirical research on China's unequal energy consumption is very limited. Therefore, according to the data from 30 provinces and cities, this study aims to establish a simulation model to analyse the Gini coefficient (the Lorenz curve) of China's energy consumption, and identify the main factors affecting the Gini coefficient through dynamic scenario analysis. During the simulation cycle (from 2022 to 2081), the average Gini coefficient of energy consumption fluctuates between 0.30 and 0.41, which indicates the inequality is slightly high. But the maximum value fluctuation ranges from 0.40 to 0.50, which indicates the inequality is high. The author also found that three factors—technological level, government subsidies, and growth rate of energy supply—can significantly affect the Gini coefficient of energy consumption. It is necessary to promote the technological level, increase subsidies for energy production, and promote the growth of total energy supply to significantly reduce inequity in energy consumption.