Is carbon emission decline caused by economic decline? Empirical evidence from Russia

Abstract

Russia’s energy-related carbon emission decreased by roughly 30% between 1992 and 2017. Previous studies reported that economic recession led to carbon emission reduction in Russia during 1990s. This paper aims to examine whether the economic recession remains to lead to a decline in Russia’s carbon emission for 1992–2017. The results show that not economic recession, but improving energy efficiency is the most significant contributor to decreasing Russia’s carbon emission from 1992 to 2017. Economic recession is the major contributor to the decrease in Russian carbon emission only before the new century and then reversed to the leading contributor to the increase in carbon emission. This research also finds that a shift to less carbon-intensive fuel and decrease in population also contribute to offsetting carbon emission in Russia. Thus, this research argues that the cause for the decline in Russia’s carbon emission for 1992–2017 is not economic recession. Indeed, Russia’s economic activity and change in carbon emission have been delinked since the new century. It can be concluded that the reduction in Russia’s carbon emission during 1992–2017 arises from a combination of improving energy efficiency, a shift to less carbon-intensive fuel, and decrease in population.