Restricted accessResearch articleFirst published online 2026
A techno-economic analysis and cost optimization pathway for solar thermal Desiccant-IEC cooling systems in tropical climates using Monte Carlo simulation
Prohibitively high capital cost of solar thermal desiccant cooling systems for small scale applications remains a barrier to adaptation in high humidity regions. This study provides a comprehensive Monte-Carlo based framework for solar thermal desiccant systems with indirect evaporative cooling (IEC) for residential cooling in tropical climates, focusing on systems with 36,000‒48,000 BTU cooling capacity. The objective of the study is to model cost uncertainty and identify precise cost reduction targets for key components i.e., solar thermal collectors, desiccant materials, IEC units, and phase change material (PCM), are assessed through component cost analysis and sensitivity assessment. The simulation revealed a mean system cost of $2,528.59, significantly lower than the typical capital cost of $5,000‒$10,000 for vapor compression refrigeration systems (VCRs). The analysis demonstrates that targeted cost reductions of 50–75% for major components can make the system cost-competitive with conventional VCR. Our findings suggest that with further advancements, solar thermal desiccant systems can offer a cost-effective, energy-efficient alternative to traditional cooling solutions in tropical regions.
ButtMBDilshadSAbasN, et al.Design of home load management system for load rationing in Pakistan. Eng Rep2021; 3(3): e12312. https://doi.org/10.1002/eng2.12312
2.
BaijuVAsif ShaAChaiAB, et al.Performance assessment of a solar hybrid potable atmospheric water generator using vapour adsorption-thermo electric cooling system. Energy Convers Manag2025; 330: 119665. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2025.119665
3.
DezfouliMMatSPirastehG, et al.Simulation analysis of the four configurations of solar desiccant cooling system using evaporative cooling in tropical weather in Malaysia. Int J Photoenergy2014; 2014: 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/843617
4.
KamaruzzmanSSohif BinMSahariKSM, et al.Effect of isothermal dehumidification on the performance of solar cooling system in tropical countries. In: SayighA (ed). Renewable Energy in the Service of Mankind Vol II: Selected Topics from the World Renewable Energy Congress WREC 2014. Springer International Publishing, 2016, pp. 749–758.
5.
DezfouliMMSSopianKKadirK. Energy and performance analysis of solar solid desiccant cooling systems for energy efficient buildings in tropical regions. Energy Convers Manag X2022; 14: 100186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecmx.2022.100186
6.
MehlaNYadavA. An experimental investigation on Solar Powered Solid Desiccant Air Conditioning (SPSDAC) based on regenerative evaporative cooling system with PCM unit. Int J Ambient Energy2021; 42(5): 558–569. https://doi.org/10.1080/01430750.2018.1562969
7.
BrodayEERuivoCRGameiro da SilvaM. The use of Monte Carlo method to assess the uncertainty of thermal comfort indices PMV and PPD: benefits of using a measuring set with an operative temperature probe. J Build Eng2021; 35: 101961. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobe.2020.101961
8.
SaleemMSAbasN. Optimization and loss estimation in energy-deficient polygeneration systems: a case study of Pakistan’s utilities with integrated renewable energy. Results Eng2025; 25: 104001. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2025.104001
9.
GrecoAGundabattiniEGnanarajDS, et al.A comparative study on the performances of flat plate and evacuated tube collectors deployable in domestic solar water heating systems in different climate areas. Climate2020; 8: 78. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8060078
BaiZChinnappanADengJ, et al.Recent progress in ionic liquids as desiccants for energy consumption in cooling applications. J Mol Liq2023; 383: 122033. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.molliq.2023.122033
12.
ShiWYangHMaX, et al.Performance prediction and optimization of cross-flow indirect evaporative cooler by regression model based on response surface methodology. Energy2023; 283: 128636. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.128636
13.
WanYHuangZSohA, et al.On the performance study of a hybrid indirect evaporative cooling and latent-heat thermal energy storage system under commercial operating conditions. Appl Therm Eng2023; 221: 119902. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2022.119902
14.
JaniDBMishraMSahooPK. Experimental investigation on solid desiccant–vapor compression hybrid air-conditioning system in hot and humid weather. Appl Therm Eng2016; 104: 556–564. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2016.05.104
15.
SonowalJNaikBKLakshmiD, et al.Evolution of solar driven desiccant systems for energy-efficient air conditioning: a review. Solar Compass2025; 14: 100115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solcom.2025.100115
16.
SayadiSAkanderJHayatiA, et al.Comparison of space cooling systems from energy and economic perspectives for a Future City District in Sweden. Energies2023; 16: 3852. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16093852
17.
GesteiraLGUcheJ. A novel polygeneration system based on a solar-assisted desiccant cooling system for residential buildings: an energy and environmental analysis. Sustainability2022; 14: 3449. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063449
18.
AngrisaniGRoselliCSassoM, et al.Assessment of energy, environmental and economic performance of a solar desiccant cooling system with different collector types. Energies2014; 7: 6741–6764. https://doi.org/10.3390/en7106741
19.
BaniyounesAMRasulMGKhanMMK. Experimental assessment of a solar desiccant cooling system for an institutional building in subtropical Queensland, Australia. Energy Build2013; 62: 78–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.02.062
20.
PezzuttoSQuagliniGRiviereP, et al.Screening of cooling technologies in Europe: alternatives to vapour compression and possible market developments. Sustainability2022; 14: 2971. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052971
21.
IsmailMZahraWKHassanH. Experimental study of vapor compression refrigeration system enhanced via tubular heat exchanger incorporating single/dual phase change materials. Case Stud Therm Eng2023; 49: 103164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csite.2023.103164
22.
KimMHPettersenJBullardCW. Fundamental process and system design issues in CO2 vapor compression systems. Prog Energy Combust Sci2004; 30(2): 119–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecs.2003.09.002
23.
KhargotraRKumarRKovácsA, et al.Techno-economic analysis of solar thermal collector for sustainable built environment. J Therm Anal Calorimetry2024; 149(3): 1175–1184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10973-023-12775-0
24.
UkaiMOkumiyaMTanakaH. Energy performance evaluation of a desiccant air handling system to maximize solar thermal energy use in a hot and humid climate. Sustainability2020; 12: 1921. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12051921
25.
AbdelgaiedMSaberMABassuoniMM, et al.Performance improvement of solar-assisted air-conditioning systems by using an innovative configuration of a desiccant dehumidifier and thermal recovery unit. J Therm Anal Calorimetry2023; 148(14): 7003–7018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10973-023-12215-z
26.
HaileMGGaray-MartinezR. Macarulla review of evaporative cooling systems for buildings in hot and dry climates. Buildings2024; 14: 3504. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14113504
27.
GuoCLiYLiX, et al.Design selection method of exhaust air heat recovery type indirect evaporative cooler. Sustainability2023; 15: 7371. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15097371
BlandAKhzouzMStatherosT, et al.Buildings PCMs for residential building applications: a short review focused on disadvantages and proposals for future development. Buildings2017; 7: 78. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings7030078
30.
FosterVWitteS. Falling short: a global survey of electricity tariff design. Energy Conversion and Management, Elsevier, 2020.
31.
MigishaAGNtayiJMBuyinzaF, et al.Review of concepts and determinants of grid electricity reliability. Energies2023; 16: 7220. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16217220
32.
WebberRJ. Non-intrusive Monte Carlo methods for high-dimensional estimation. New York University, 2021.
33.
SerrL. A Matlab Program for testing Quasi-Monte Carlo constructions. Energy Engineering : Journal of the Association of Energy Engineers; Atlanta, 2010.
34.
AlbuquerqueCRealM. Comparative study of computational methods of structural reliability assessment. Int J Adv Eng Res Sci2022; 9: 070–082. https://doi.org/10.22161/ijaers.95.6
35.
GuetzAN. Monte Carlo methods for structured data. In: Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering. Stanford University, 2012.
36.
DenningRAldemirTNakayamaMK, et al. The use of Latin hypercube sampling for the efficient estimation of confidence intervals. U.S. Department of EnergyOffice of Scientific and Technical Information, 2012.
37.
HaupinRJHouGJW. A unit-load approach for reliability-based design optimization of linear structures under random loads and boundary conditions. Design2023; 7(4): 96. https://doi.org/10.3390/designs7040096
38.
BouchaalaAMerrounOArkamY, et al.Energy saving and economic competitiveness of solar desiccant cooling technology – a case study of the Moroccan Kingdom. Renew Sustain Energy Rev2024; 192: 114188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.114188
39.
AlrwashdehSSAmmariH. Life cycle cost analysis of two different refrigeration systems powered by solar energy. Case Stud Therm Eng2019; 16: 100559. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csite.2019.100559
40.
JainVMullickSCKandpalTC. A financial feasibility evaluation of using evaporative cooling with air-conditioning (in hybrid mode) in commercial buildings in India. Energy Sustain Dev2013; 17(1): 47–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2012.11.002
41.
BrücknerSLiuSMiróL, et al.Industrial waste heat recovery technologies: an economic analysis of heat transformation technologies. Appl Energy2015; 151: 157–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.147
FongKFLeeCChowT, et al.Investigation on solar hybrid desiccant cooling system for commercial premises with high latent cooling load in subtropical Hong Kong. Appl Therm Eng2011; 31(16): 3393–3401. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2011.06.024
44.
KimMHParkJYSungMK, et al.Annual operating energy savings of liquid desiccant and evaporative-cooling-assisted 100% outdoor air system. Energy Build2014; 76: 538–550. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.03.006
45.
ShekarchianMMoghavvemiMMotasemiF, et al.Energy savings and cost-benefit analysis of using compression and absorption chillers for air conditioners in Iran. Renew Sustain Energy Rev2013; 15: 1950–1960. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2010.12.020
46.
Tabet AoulKAHasanAAI DakheelJA. Assessment of solar dehumidification systems in a hot climate. Sustainability2021; 13: 277. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13010277
LubisAJeongJSaitoK, et al.Solar-assisted single-double-effect absorption chiller for use in Asian tropical climates. Renew Energy2016; 99: 825–835. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.07.055
49.
RiazFQyyumMABokhariA, et al.Design and energy analysis of a solar desiccant evaporative cooling system with Built-In daily energy storage. Energies2021; 14: 2429. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14092429
50.
ElsaftyAAl-DainiAJ. Economical comparison between a solar-powered vapour absorption air-conditioning system and a vapour compression system in the Middle East. Renew Energy2002; 25(4): 569–583. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0960-1481(01)00078-7
51.
Sadighi DizajiHHuEJChenL, et al.Using novel integrated Maisotsenko cooler and absorption chiller for cooling of gas turbine inlet air. Energy Convers Manag2019; 195: 1067–1078. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2019.05.064
52.
HassanZMisaran@MisranMJulius SiambunN. Performance of the Direct Evaporative Cooler (DEC) operating in a hot and humid Region of Sabah Malaysia. Journal of Advanced Research in Fluid Mechanics and Thermal Sciences2022; 93: 17–27. https://doi.org/10.37934/arfmts.93.2.1727
53.
GaglianoAPataniaFNoceraF, et al.Performance assessment of a solar assisted desiccant cooling system. Therm Sci2014; 18: 563–576. https://doi.org/10.2298/tsci120526067g
54.
KhoukhiMAl-KhatibO. Performance of desiccant-based cooling systems in hot-humid climates: a review. Energy Eng J Assoc Energy Eng2021; 118: 875–909. https://doi.org/10.32604/ee.2021.015835
55.
KaplanM. Augmented heat transfer in the solar air heater having hybrid roughness as continuous and discrete V ribs with dimples: a CFD analysis. Case Stud Therm Eng2026; 77: 107548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csite.2025.107548
