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Abstract

Based on general considerations and a relatively small amount of easily available UK data, it is shown that the electricity grid should be able to absorb wind power’s full output up to a wind penetration of about 17.5 per cent. This is demonstrated not to constitute a hard limit, however, and almost all wind power’s output can be absorbed up to a penetration of about 50 per cent, a much larger fraction than has been acknowledged generally hitherto. Thus, the theoretical limits to wind power are rather wide. However, the analysis does not attempt to account for the practical difficulties imposed on the standby generators needed to match supply to demand in the presence of intermittent wind power. The intermittency of wind means that wind power generators need to provide standby generation if they are to contribute to maintaining the continuity of electric power supply that is prized so highly in all modern civilizations. The Declaration Obligation Model (DOM) has been introduced based on the notion that in return for a guarantee from the grid to purchase all the wind power that wind farms can produce at all times, each wind power operator will make a declaration that he will supply an amount of power sent out equal to the maximum continuous rating of his wind farm. A substantial offset for the cost of the standby generation is provided by the fact that the DOM allows for the recovery of revenue from the standby generators selling the shortfall of electricity when wind power operators are unable to meet their obligations from their wind turbines. The cost of this back-up generation is understood most easily by calculating the ‘standby premium’, the fractional additional cost of wind energy needed to cover the necessary level of back-up capacity. The cost of standby emerges as relatively modest. For today’s costs for wind power and gas generation, the standby premium is about 12 per cent for offshore wind and 16 per cent for onshore, if gas generation provides the standby plant. Wind power will become competitive with general power production when the fuel cost per MWh associated with general generation has risen to match the levelized cost of constructing and operating the wind turbines without standby. This prompts the notion of wind power as a fuel-saving adjunct to general power production rather than as a wholly independent source of energy.

Keywords

wind power standby generation Declaration Obligation Model wind power penetration capacity mechanism

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The limits to wind power and the cost of standby generation

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