Trends in HIV incidence and mortality across Bharat (India) after the emergence of COVID-19

Abstract

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a sexually transmitted infection impacting populations worldwide. While there have been major improvements in controlling HIV over recent years, the COVID-19 pandemic may have potentially resulted in major interruptions to this control of HIV. Bharat (India) is a country that has been greatly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and we aimed to analyse the trends in HIV control since the start of the pandemic.

Methods

In this study we evaluated changes in rates of HIV incidence and mortality across Bharat for the years both before, and after, the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Percent and absolute changes were determined, and thereafter, both bivariate and multi linear regression was conducted to evaluate the relationship between COVID-19 burden and changes in HIV epidemiology across the nation.

Results

It was shown that, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, annual incidence and deaths of HIV/AIDS have both decreased across Bharat. From 2019–2021, in Bharat, the total number of new HIV cases annually decreased by 9.03%, and the total number of HIV/AIDS deaths annually decreased by 28.82%. A similar trend was shown across most states/union territories; however, there were notable exceptions (such as Karnataka, Bihar, and Assam) where the rates have instead increased.

Conclusions

Our analysis has demonstrated that government efforts to control the HIV/AIDS epidemic have not been greatly impacted across the majority of Bharat since the emergence of COVID-19. The reduction in annual HIV/AIDS deaths in the country has been better than the world average, and the improvements from the period of 2019 to 2021 were greater than those from 2017 to 2019. Regardless, there are regions in the nation where the epidemic has instead worsened during this period.