Seizing the mantle of change: Modeling candidate quality as effectiveness instead of valence

Abstract

In spatial models of electoral competition, candidate quality is typically modeled as valence, a measure of general appeal assumed to be constant across voters. This paper introduces and formally models an alternative conception of candidate quality according to which candidates differ in their effectiveness, or likelihood of changing policy from the status quo. Although more effective candidates are electorally favored, voters’ benefits from effectiveness are contingent on their policy preferences. The effectiveness model shares many qualitative features with the valence model, but adds several testable implications related to the position of the status quo and gives rise to non-monotonic voting. When valence and effectiveness are combined, valence dominates effectiveness in determining the winner if and only if the status quo policy is sufficiently close to the political center.