Understanding the dynamics and duration of trending topics on digital platforms has been deemed a crucial issue of research in computer-mediated communication. Employing event history analysis (EHA), this study attempts to examine the antecedents of the lifespan and evolution of trending topics on Sina Weibo, one of the most prevalent social media platforms in China. Based on a collection of 2,386 Sina Weibo trending topics that emerged between January 1 and January 31, 2022, the study explores how factors of trending topics, especially their semantic and textual features, significantly influence topic persistence. Our findings indicate that the median survival time of Weibo trending topic was 6.28 hours, with an average of 8.29 hours. In addition, exogenous non-viral topics, driven by external events or media coverage, tend to remain on the trending list longer than other topics. Furthermore, political topics tend to have a relatively longer period of survival duration when compared to social events, life records and moods, and fashion and entertainment topics. Lastly, actionable and opinion-oriented topics tend to have shorter longevity compared to informational and emotional topics. By quantifying the factors that affect trending topic duration, the study offers a novel theoretical perspective on the role of political drivers and external influences in shaping collective and connective digital discourses. The findings contribute to the broader field of digital platform communication, particularly in public opinion management and content governance on social media.
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