The Russia–Serbia Nexus between Strategic Partnership and Domestic Politics

Abstract

This article explores the deepening political, ideological, and strategic ties between Serbia and Russia since 2012 and the way they bolster authoritarian resilience in Serbia and expand Russian influence in the Western Balkans and Europe. It argues that Serbia’s ruling elite, particularly under President Aleksandar Vučić and the pro-Russian Serbian Progressive Party, has leveraged close ties with the Kremlin to consolidate power and resist Western democratic pressures. In return, Russia gains a geopolitical foothold in a key region bordering the European Union (EU) and NATO. The article examines the way in which state-sponsored and pro-regime non-state actors complement official narratives and bilateral deals involving energy and defense by advancing nationalist narratives and promoting a “civilizational” connection, further reinforced by the concepts of the “Russian World” and “Serbian World.” Despite economic dependence on the EU, Serbia’s alignment with Russia signals a pragmatic challenge to Western influence—an asymmetry that risks turning Serbia into a geopolitical outlier, estranged from democratic norms and vulnerable to external manipulation. The study contributes to the literature on hybrid regimes, foreign influence, and authoritarian consolidation, while underscoring the need for a more assertive EU strategy in the Western Balkans.