In the Shadow of the Smolensk Catastrophe—The 2010 Presidential Election in Poland

Abstract

The tragic events of 10 April 2010 became one of the most important topics of public discourse in Poland. They remain its central issue until today. This paper is an attempt to investigate one aspect of the phenomenon: the impact of the disaster and subsequent events on the presidential election of 2010. It is based on the results of research carried out within the Polish National Election Study (PNES) project. At least three reasons make it plausible that the Smolensk catastrophe had a great impact on Polish politics. Firstly, the disaster had legal and constitutional consequences; the sudden death of a head of state always generates a number of specific actions, policy changes, and (most importantly from the perspective of this paper) determines the election calendar. Secondly, the disaster had psychological consequences; it caused a strong psychological shock for participants in the political process, which redefined political competition, public discourse, and the media coverage. Thirdly, narratives about the events preceding the crash and following it quickly became an important element of Polish politics, especially in the media and in the electoral campaign. The main finding of the paper is that the Smolensk catastrophe did not produce a fundamental change in the political preferences and voting patterns of Polish citizens. At both the aggregate and individual level we observe relative stability in voter turnout patterns and voting preferences. The paper also finds that the catastrophe strengthened existing preferences and behavior patterns, and it petrified existing divisions. This paper is a study of voting behavior in extreme situations. It analyses a unique phenomenon—voting during a huge social trauma and right afterwards. Thus, in addition to the idiographic objective of the paper (explanation of voting behavior in the 2010 presidential election in Poland), it also has a nomothetic aspect, because it contributes to the theoretical discussions about voting behavior in traumatic, exceptional situations. It can serve as a reference point for future studies addressing the issue of electoral behavior in unexpected, unusual contexts.