Whlch Party Will Win? Advantages and Weaknesses of a Numerical Question. This article evaluates the numerical question used in the 1997 Canadian Election Study which measures electors' perceptions of parties' chances of winning the election. At first, this question appears inappropriate for reliable research. At least three important weaknesses are associated with the question. First, the formulation contains some ambiguities. Second, the literature provides many pieces of evidences regarding the limited capacities of people to deal with probabilities. Finally, responses to the 1997 Canadian Election Study are not consistent with researchers' expectations regarding the form of these answers. However, the question provides reliable answers. Two empirical tests demonstrate that respondents give sensible answers. First, their perceptions follow the evolution of polls, and these perceptions also affect their voting behaviour.
Abramson, P.R., J.H. Aldrich and P. Paolino ( 1992), Sophisticated Voting in the 1988 Presidential Primaries , American Political Science Review, Vol. 86, March, pp. 55-69.
2.
Bartels, Larry M. ( 1985), Expectations and Preferences in Presidential Nominating Campaigns, American Political Science Review, Vol. 79, September, pp. 804-815.
3.
Bartels, Larry M. ( 1987), Candidate Choice and the Dynamics of the Presidential Nominating Process, American Journal of Political Science , Vol. 31, February, pp. 1-30.
4.
Bartels, Larry M. ( 1988), Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice , Princeton University Press, Princeton , New Jersey.
5.
Blais, A., and M. Boyer ( 1996), Assessing the Impact of Televised Debates: The Case of the 1988 Canadian Election, British Journal of Political Science , Vol. 26, April, pp. 143-164.
6.
Blais, A., E. Gidengil, R. Nadeau, N. Nevitte et M. Turcotte ( 1996), Les sondages influencent-ils le vote?, Communication présentée au Colloque "Les effets des campagnes électorales ", à l'Université de Montréal, 2 octobre 1996.
7.
Blais, A. et R. Nadeau ( 1996), Measuring Strategic Voting: A Two-Step Procedure , Electoral Studies, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 39-52.
8.
Blais, A., R. Nadeau, E. Gidengil and N. Nevitte ( 1999a), Do Polls Influence the Vote?, unpublished manuscript, Montréal.
9.
Blais, A.R.: Nadeau, E. Gidengil and N. Nevitte ( 1999b), Conceptualizing and Operationalizing Strategic Voting , unpublished manuscript, Montréal.
10.
Cox, Gary W. ( 1997), Making Votes Count, Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral Systems, Cambridge University Press , Cambridge.
11.
Kahneman, D., P. Slovic, and A. Tversky ( 1982), Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biaises , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
12.
Kriesi, H. ( 1988), Straightforward and Strategic Voting in the Elections for the Swiss Council of States in 1995, Electoral Studies , Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 45-59.
13.
Lewis-Beck, M.S. and A. Skalaban ( 1989), Citizen Forecasting: Can Voters See into the Future? , British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 19, pp. 146-153.
14.
Marsh, C. ( 1985), Back on the Bandwagon: The Effect of Opinion Polls on Public Opinion, British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 15, pp. 51-74.
15.
McAllister, D., and D.T. Studlar ( 1991), Bandwagon, Underdog, or Projection? Opinions Polls and Electoral Choice in Britain, 1979-1987, Journal of Politics , Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 720-741.
16.
McGlone, M.S. and A.B. Reed ( 1998), Anchoring in the Interpretation of Probability Expressions , Journal of Pragmatics, Vol. 30, pp. 723-733.
17.
Nadeau, R., R.G. Niemi and T. Amato ( 1994), Expectations and Preferences in British General Elections , American Political Science Review, Vol. 88, No. 2, June, pp. 371-383.
18.
Nadeau, R., R.G. Niemi and J. Levine ( 1993), Innumeracy About Minority Populations, Public Opinion Quaterly.
19.
Niemi, R.G., G. Whitten and M.N. Franklin ( 1992), Constituency Characteristics, Individual Characteristics and Tactical Voting in the 1987 British General Election, British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 22, April, pp. 229-240.
20.
Northrup, A. ( 1998), The 1997 Canadian Election Study: Technical Documentation , Institute for Social Research, North York.
21.
Skalaban, A. ( 1988), Do Polls Affect Elections?, Political Behavior, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 136-150.
22.
Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman ( 1973), Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability , Cognitive Psychology, Vol. 5, pp. 207-232.
23.
Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman ( 1974), Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , Science, Vol. 185, pp. 1124-1130.
24.
Tversky, A., and D.J. Koehler ( 1994), Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability, Psychological Review, Vol. 101, pp. 547-567.
