Digital disparities and care burdens: Pathways to school dropout among teenage mothers in the Colombian Caribbean

Abstract

This study examined causal pathways leading to school dropout among teenage mothers in three major urban centers of Colombia’s Caribbean region. Through a quasi-experimental design with propensity score matching involving 173 adolescent mothers (ages 14–18) enrolled in public schools during 2024, the research tested whether the simultaneous absence of digital connectivity, psychosocial support, and childcare access directly affected dropout probability. Statistical analyses using Structural Bayesian Networks, Quantile Binomial Poisson Regression, and Generalized Treatment Effect Models identified three main direct causal influences: institutional support quality (coefficient = −0.327), digital access conditions (coefficient = −0.281), and residential instability (coefficient = 0.195). The combined effect of multiple support services reduced dropout probability by approximately one-third (ATT = −0.328, p < 0.001), with stronger protective effects for more vulnerable subgroups. City-specific variations suggested local institutional configurations modified these relationships, with Cartagena showing greater resilience despite similar structural challenges. The findings underscored the need for comprehensive support systems addressing digital inequalities, care infrastructure, and psychosocial assistance simultaneously.