Sea level rise is one of the climate change effects most amenable to adaptation planning as the impacts are familiar and the nature of the phenomenon is unambiguous. Yet, significant uncertainties remain. Using a normative framework of adaptive management and natural hazards planning, we examine how coastal communities in Florida are planning in the face of accelerating sea level rise through analysis of planning documents and interviews with planners. We clarify that communities are taking a low-regrets incremental approach with increasingly progressive measures motivated by confidence in planning intelligence and direct experience with impacts attributable to sea level rise.
BeatleyTimothy.1998. “The Vision of Sustainable Communities.” In Cooperating with Nature: Confronting Natural Hazards with Land-Use Planning for Sustainable Communities, edited by BurbyRaymond J., 233–62. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press.
5.
Berrang-FordLeaFordJames D.PatersonJaclyn. 2011. “Are We Adapting to Climate Change?”Global Environmental Change21 (1): 25–33.
6.
BierbaumRosinaSmithJoel B.LeeArthurBlairMariaCarterLynneChapinF. StuartIIIFlemingPaulRuffoSusanStultsMissyMcNeeleyShannonWasleyEmilyVerduzcoLaura. 2013. “A Comprehensive Review of Climate Adaptation in the United States: More Than Before, but Less Than Needed.” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change18 (3): 361–406.
7.
BurbyRaymond J.BeatleyTimothyBerkePhilip R.DeyleRobert E.FrenchSteven P.GodschalkDavid R.KaiserEdward J.KartezJack D.MayPeter J.OlshanskyRobert1999. “Unleashing the Power of Planning to Create Disaster-Resistant Communities or Why the Staggering Toll of Economic Losses and Human Suffering in Natural Disasters Will Continue to Rise if Federal Policy Is Not Revised to Reverse Disincentives That Have Stifled Local Efforts to Plan for and Manage the Development of Hazardous Areas.” Journal of the American Planning Association65 (3): 247–58.
8.
CarminJoAnnNadkarniNikhilRhieChristopher. 2012. Progress and Challenges in Urban Climate Adaptation Planning: Results of a Global Survey. Cambridge: MIT Press.
9.
Castán BrotoVanesaBulkeleyHarriet. 2013. “A Survey of Urban Climate Change Experiments in 100 Cities.” Global Environmental Change23 (1): 92–102.
10.
CheongSo-Min. 2011. “Policy Solutions in the U.S.” Climatic Change106:57–70.
11.
ChurchJohn A.ClarkPeter U.CazenaveAnnyGregoryJonathan M.JevrejevaSvetlanaLevermannAndersMerrifieldMark A.MilneGlenn A.NeremR. StevenNunnPatrick D.2013. “Sea Level Change.” In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by StockerThomas F.QinDahePlattnerGian-KasperTignorMelinda M. B.AllenSimon K.BoschungJudithNauelsAlexanderXiaYuBexVincentMidgleyPauline M., 1137–1216. New York: Cambridge University Press.
DeyleRobert E.ButlerWilliam H.2012. “Resilience Planning in the Face of Uncertainty: Adapting to Climate Change Effects on Coastal Hazards.” In Disaster Resiliency: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, edited by KapucuNaimHawkinsChristopher V.RiveraFernando I., 178–206. New York: Routledge.
14.
DeyleRobert E.ChapinTimothy S.BakerEarl J.2008. “The Proof of the Planning Is in the Platting: An Evaluation of Florida’s Hurricane Exposure Mitigation Planning Mandate.” Journal of the American Planning Association74 (3): 349–70.
15.
EichhorstUrda.2009. Adapting Urban Transport to Climate Change. Sustainable Transport: A Sourcebook for Policy-makers in Developing Cities. Bonn, Germany: Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development.
FOCC (Florida Oceans and Coastal Council). 2009. The Effects of Climate Change on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources. A Special Report to the Florida Energy and Climate Commission and the People of Florida. Tallahassee: Florida Oceans and Coastal Council.
GodschalkDavid R.BrowerDavid J.BeatleyTimothy. 1989. Catastrophic Coastal Storms. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
20.
GodschalkDavid R.KaiserEdward J.BerkePhilip R.1998. “Integrating Hazard Mitigation and Land Use Planning.” In Cooperating with Nature: Confronting Natural Hazards with Land-Use Planning for Sustainable Communities, edited by BurbyRaymond J., 85–118. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press.
21.
GrannisJessica.2011. Adaptation Tool Kit: Sea-level Rise and Coastal Land Use. How Governments Can Use Land-Use Practices to Adapt to Sea-Level Rise. Georgetown, MD: Georgetown Climate Center.
22.
GurranNicoleNormanBarbaraHaminElisabeth. 2013. “Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Australia: An Audit of Planning Practice. Ocean & Coastal Management86:100–9.
23.
HaminElisabethGurranNicoleEmlingerAna Mesquita. 2014. “Barriers to Municipal Climate Adaptation: Examples from Coastal Massachusetts Smaller Cities and Towns.” Journal of the American Planning Association80 (2): 110–22.
HortonBenjamin P.RahmstorfStefanEngelhartSimon E.KempC.2014. “Expert Assessment of Sea-Level Rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300.” Quaternary Science Reviews84:1–6.
27.
HughesJoseph D.WhiteJeremy T.2014. “Hydrologic Conditions in Urban Miami-Dade County, Florida, and the Effect of Groundwater Pumpage and Increased Sea Level on Canal Leakage and Regional Groundwater Flow.”http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2014/5162/pdf/sir2014-5162.pdf.
28.
KapucuNaimHawkinsChristopherRiveraFernando I., eds. 2013. Disaster Resilience: Interdisciplinary Perspectives. New York: Routledge.
MayPeter J.WilliamsWalter. 1986. Disaster Policy Implementation: Managing Programs Under Shared Governance. New York: Plenum.
31.
McGuireChad J.2013. Adapting to Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Zone: Law and Policy Considerations. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
32.
McLaughlinRichard J.2011. “Rolling Easements as a Response to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Texas: Current Status of the Law After Severance v. Patterson.” Journal of Land Use26 (2): 365–94.
33.
MehtaMichelle.2011. Water Facts: Miami and the Keys, Florida: Identifying and Becoming More Resilient to the Effects of Climate Change. New York, NY: Natural Resources Defense Council. https://www.nrdc.org/water/files/ClimateWaterFS_MiamiFL.pdf.
34.
MiletiDennis.1999. Disaster by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press.
35.
MoserSusanne C.EkstromJulia A.2010. “A Framework to Diagnose Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences107 (51): 22026–31.
36.
NichollsRobert J.2011. “Planning for the Impacts of Sea Level Rise.” Oceanography24 (2): 144–47.
37.
NichollsRobert J.CazenaveAnny. 2010. “Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones.” Science328 (5985): 1517–20.
38.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2010. “Adapting to Climate Change: A Planning Guide for State Coastal Managers.”http://coastalmanagement.noaa.gov/climate/adaptation.html. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management.
39.
NobleIan R.HuqSaleemulAnokhinYuri A.CarminJoAnnGoudouDieudonneLansiganFelino P.Osman-ElashaBalgisVillamizarAlicia. 2014. “Adaptation Needs and Options.” In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by FieldChristopher B.BarrosVicente R.DokkenDavid JonMachKatharine J.MastrandreaMichael D.BilirT. ErenChatterjeeMonalisaEbiKristie L.EstradaYuka OtsukiGenovaRobert C.833–68. New York: Cambridge University Press.
OlshanskyRobert B.KartezJack D.1998. “Managing Land Use to Build Resilience.” In Cooperating with Nature: Confronting Natural Hazards with Land-Use Planning for Sustainable Communities, edited by BurbyRaymond J., 167–201. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press.
45.
RossiPeter H.WrightJames D.Weber-BurdinEleanor. 1982. Natural Hazards and Public Choice: The State and Local Politics of Hazard Mitigation. New York: Academic Press.
46.
SchwabJames ed. 2014. Planning for Post-Disaster Recovery: Next Generation. PAS Report 576. Chicago: American Planning Association.
ShiLindaChuEricDebatsJessica. 2015. “Explaining Progress in Climate Adaptation Planning across 156 U.S. Municipalities.” Journal of the American Planning Association81 (3): 191–202.
50.
TitusJames G.1998. “Rising Seas, Coastal Erosion, and the Takings Clause: How to Save Wetlands and Beaches without Hurting Property Owners.” Maryland Law Review57 (4): 717–86.
TitusJames G.HudgensDaniel E.TrtescottDaniel L.CraghanMichaelNuckolsWilliam H.HershnerCarl H.KassakianJ. M.LinnChris J.MerrittPeter G.McCueT. M.. 2009. “State and Local Governments Plan for Development of Most Land Vulnerable to Rising Sea Level Along the US Atlantic Coast.” Environmental Research Letters4. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044008.
VermeulenSonja J.ChallinorAndrew J.ThortonPhilip K.CampbellBruce M.EriyagamaNishadiVervoortJoost M.KinyangiJamesJarvisAndyLaderachPeterRamirez-VillegasJulian. 2015. “Address Uncertainty in Adaptation Planning for Agriculture.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences110 (21): 8357–62.
56.
WongPoh PohLosadaInigo J.GattusoJ.-P.HinkelJochenKhattabiAbdellatifMcInnesK. L.SaitoYoshikiSallengerAsbury. 2014: “Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas.” In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by FieldChristopher B.BarrosVicente R.DokkenDavid J.MachKatharine J.MastrandreaMichael D.BilirT. ErenChatterjeeMonalisaEbiKristie L.EstradaYuka OtsukiGenovaRobert C., 361–409. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
