A critical element that is often overlooked when studying negotiations in civil wars is popular support for the peace process itself. This is particularly important when agreements are subject to ratification by the broader population, as was the case in the Colombian conflict with the FARC. Using survey data from 2014, we find that attitudes toward this peace process were driven by political preferences more than conflict experiences. Some demographic traits (education, religion, and rural residency) were also important. Notably, these determinants of support for talks with the FARC map closely onto voting patterns in the October 2016 plebiscite.
AbusadaMS (1998) Palestinian party affiliation and political attitudes toward the peace process. Arab Studies Quarterly20: 65–81.
2.
BalcellsL (2010) Rivalry and revenge: Violence against civilians in conventional civil wars. International Studies Quarterly54(2): 291–313.
3.
BellCO’RourkeC (2007) The people’s peace? Peace agreements, civil society, and participatory democracy. International Political Science Review28(3): 293–324.
4.
BerrebiCKlorEF (2006) On terrorism and electoral outcomes: Theory and evidence from the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution50(6): 899–925.
5.
BerrebiCKlorEF (2008) Are voters sensitive to terrorism? Direct evidence from the Israeli electorate. American Political Science Review102(3): 279–301.
6.
BloomfieldDBarnesTHuyseL (eds) (2003) Reconciliation after Violent Conflict: A Handbook. Stockholm: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
7.
BouvierVM (2009) Colombia: Building Peace in a Time of War. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.
CollierP (1999) On the economic consequences of civil war. Oxford Economic Papers51(1): 168–183.
12.
CunninghamD (2006) Veto players and civil war duration. American Journal of Political Science50(4): 875–892.
13.
DeRouenKFergusonMJNortonSParkYHLeaJStreat-BartlettA (2010) Civil war peace agreement implementation and state capacity. Journal of Peace Research47(3): 333–346.
14.
EichenbergR (1996) Public Opinion and National Security in Western Europe. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
15.
GrossmanGManekinDMiodownikD (2015) The political legacies of combat: Attitudes toward war and peace among Israeli ex-combatants. International Organization69(4): 981–1009.
16.
HartzellC (2009) Settling civil wars: Armed opponents’ fates and the duration of the peace. Conflict Management and Peace Science26(4): 347–365.
17.
HayesBCMcAllisterI (2001) Sowing dragon’s teeth: Public support for political violence and paramilitarism in Northern Ireland. Political Studies49(5): 901–922.
18.
Human Rights Watch (2015) World Report 2015: Colombia. Available from: www.hrw.org (accessed 22 July 2015).
KalyvasS (2006) The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
21.
KangSMeernikJ (2005) Civil war destruction and the prospects for economic growth. Journal of Politics67(1): 88–109.
22.
KibrisA (2011) Funerals and elections: The effects of terrorism on voting behavior in Turkey. Journal of Conflict Resolution55(2): 220–247.
23.
KlingemannH-DHofferbertRBudgeI (1994) Parties, Politics, and Democracy. Boulder, CO: Westview.
24.
LAPOP (2014) The AmericasBarometer by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP). Available from: www.LapopSurveys.org
25.
MainwaringSScullyTR (1995) Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
26.
MattesMSavunB (2009) Fostering peace after civil war: Commitment problems and agreement design. International Studies Quarterly53(3): 737–759.
27.
MurdochJCSandlerT (2002) Economic growth, civil wars, and spatial spillovers. Journal of Conflict Resolution46(1): 91–110.
28.
National Center for Historic Memory (2013) Basta Ya! Colombia: Memorias de Guerra y Dignidad. Bogotá Imprenta Nacional.
29.
NewmanS (2012) Between optimism and pessimism: Israeli attitudes toward conflict resolution in the post-Oslo era. Nationalism and Ethnic Politics18(4): 476–504.
30.
RestrepoJASpagatMVargasJF (2004) The dynamics of the Colombian civil conflict: A new data set. Homo Oeconomicus21(2): 396–428.
31.
RestrepoJGutierrezGMarínMRonderosN (2014) Tipología de los Municipios de Colombia según el Conflict Armado Interno. Centro de Recursos para el Análisis del Conflicto, SARAC, Bogotá.
32.
RohnerDThoenigMZilibottiF (2013) Seeds of distrust: Conflict in Uganda. Journal of Economic Growth18(3): 217–252.
33.
SahliyehEDengZ (2003) The determinants of Palestinians’ attitudes toward peace with Israel. International Studies Quarterly43: 693–708.
34.
SteeleA (2011) Electing displacement: Political cleansing in Apartadó, Colombia. Journal of Conflict Resolution55(3): 423–445.
35.
ToftMD (2010) Ending civil wars: A case for rebel victory?International Security34(4): 7–36.
36.
WaldmannP (2007) Is there a culture of violence in Colombia?Terrorism and Political Violence19: 593–609.
37.
WalterB (1997) The critical barrier to civil war settlement. International Organization51(3): 335–364.
38.
WeinsteinJM (2005) Resources and the information problem in rebel recruitment. Journal of Conflict Resolution49(4): 598–624.
39.
ZhukovY (2013) An epidemic model of violence and public support in civil war. Conflict Management and Peace Science30(1): 24–52.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
