This study proposes a Marxian explanation to account for the spread of COVID-19 in the United States in 2020. Capital opposed and resisted public non-pharmaceutical interventions because they interfered with short-term profitability. The economy was prematurely reopened under the structural economic power of capital at the expense of society. This empirical analysis exploits the variation in the local economic power of capital across counties, measured by the county-level employment share of employees of private for-profit companies. If the structural economic power of capital in a county was more substantial, then the cumulative COVID-19 death rate and the unemployment rate were larger, and social distancing behaviors were discouraged in that county. Workplace safety was not guaranteed during the pandemic, potentially contributing to the spread of COVID-19.
AckleyCalvin A.LundbergDielle J.MaLeiEloIrma T.PrestonSamuel H.Stokes.Andrew C.2022. County-level estimates of excess mortality associated with COVID-19 in the United States. SSM-Population Health17: 101021.
3.
AlbanesiStefaniaKimJiyeon. 2021. Effects of the COVID-19 recession on the US labor market: Occupation, family, and gender. Journal of Economic Perspectives35 (3): 3–24.
4.
AlsanMarcellaChandraAmitabhSimonKosali. 2021. The great unequalizer: Initial health effects of COVID-19 in the United States. Journal of Economic Perspectives35 (3): 25–46.
5.
AlvarezFernandoArgenteDavidLippiFrancesco. 2021. A simple planning problem for COVID-19 lock-down, testing, and tracing. American Economic Review: Insights3 (3): 367–82.
6.
Amuedo-DorantesCatalinaKaushalNeerajMuchowAshley N.2020. Is the Cure Worse Than the Disease? County-Level Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States. NBER Working Paper Series no. 27759. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Accessed at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27759.
7.
AriasJonas E.Fernández-VillaverdeJesúsRubio-RamírezJuan F.ShinMinchul. 2023. The causal effects of lockdown policies on health and macroeconomic outcomes. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics15 (3): 287–319.
Balla-ElliottDylanCullenZoë B.GlaeserEdward L.LucaMichaelStantonChristopher. 2022. Determinants of small business reopening decisions after COVID restrictions were lifted. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management41 (1): 278–317.
11.
Baradaran MotieGolnazBiolsiChristopher. 2021. County-level determinants of social distancing (or lack thereof) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contemporary Economic Policy39 (2): 264–79.
12.
BartikAlexander W.RothsteinJesseBertrandMarianneUnrathMatthewLinFeng. 2020. Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity51: 239–68.
BowlesSamuel. 1985. The production process in a competitive economy: Walrasian, neo-Hobbesian, and Marxian models. American Economic Review75 (1): 16–36.
15.
BowlesSamuel. 2004. Microeconomics: Behavior, Institutions, and Evolution. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
16.
BowlesSamuelGintisHerbert. 1986. Democracy and Capitalism: Property, Community, and the Contradictions of Modern Social Thought. New York: Basic Books.
17.
BowlesSamuelGordonDavid M.WeisskopfThomas E.1984. Beyond the Waste Land: A Democratic Alternative to Economic Decline. New York: Anchor Books.
18.
BrodeurAbelGrayDavidIslamAnikBhuiyanSuraiya. 2021. A literature review of the economics of COVID-19. Journal of Economic Surveys35 (4): 1007–44.
CaseAnneDeatonAngus. 2020. Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
21.
ChernozhukovVictorKasaharaHiroyukiSchrimpfPaul. 2021. The association of opening K-12 schools with the spread of COVID-19 in the United States: County-level panel data analysis. PNAS118 (42): e2103420118.
DebPragyanFurceriDavideOstryJonathan D.TawkNour. 2022. The economic effects of COVID-19 containment measures. Open Economies Review33 (1): 1–32.
24.
DesmetKlausWacziargRomain. 2022. JUE insight: Understanding spatial variation in COVID-19 across the United States. Journal of Urban Economics127: 103332.
25.
DongEnshengDuHongruGardnerLauren. 2020. An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. The Lancet Infectious Diseases20 (5): 533–34.
26.
DubeArindrajit. 2021. Aggregate Employment Effects of Unemployment Benefits during Deep Downturns: Evidence from the Expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation. NBER Working Paper Series no. 28470. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Accessed at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28470.
27.
DyerOwen. 2020. COVID-19: Trump stokes protests against social distancing measures. BMJ369: m1596.
Fernández-VillaverdeJesúsJonesCharles I.2020. Macroeconomic outcomes and COVID-19: A progress report. Brookings Papers on Economic ActivityFall: 111–46.
31.
Fielding-MillerRebecca K.SundaramMaria E.BrouwerKimberly. 2020. Social determinants of COVID-19 mortality at the county level. PLoS One15 (10): e0240151.
32.
FletcherKelly M.EspeyJulieGrossmanMarissa K.SharpeJ. DanielleCurrieroFrank C.WiltGrete E.SunshineGregoryMorelandAmandaHoward-WilliamsMaraRamosJ. GabrielGiuffridaDaniloGarcíaMacarena C.HartnettWilliam M.FosterStephanie. 2021. Social vulnerability and county stay-at-home behavior during COVID-19 stay-at-home orders, United States, April 7–April 20, 2020. Annals of Epidemiology64: 76–82.
GanongPeterGreigFiona E.NoelPascal J.SullivanDaniel M.VavraJoseph S.2023. Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence From Administrative Micro Data. NBER Working Paper Series no. 30315. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Accessed at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30315.
38.
GibbsMichaelMengelFriederikeSiemrothChristoph. 2021. Work from Home & Productivity: Evidence from Personnel & Analytics Data on IT Professionals. BFI Working Paper no. 2021-56. Chicago, IL: Becker Friedman Institute. Accessed at: https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/BFI_WP_2021-56.pdf.
39.
GillStephen R.LawDavid. 1989. Global hegemony and the structural power of capital. International Studies Quarterly33 (4): 475–99.
40.
GoolsbeeAustanLuoNicole BeiNesbittRoxanneSyversonChad. 2020. COVID-19 Lockdown Policies at the State and Local Level. BFI Working Paper no. 2020-116. Chicago, IL: Becker Friedman Institute. Accessed at: https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/2020-116/.
41.
GordonDavid M.WeisskopfThomas E.BowlesSamuel. 1987. Power, accumulation, and crisis: The rise and demise of the postwar social structure of accumulation. In The Imperiled Economy, Book 1: Macroeconomics from a Left Perspective, eds. RobertCherryD’OnofrioChristineKurdasCigdemMichlThomas R.MoseleyFredNaplesMichele I., 43–57. New York: The Union for Radical Political Economics.
42.
GrossmanGuyKimSoojongRexerJonah M.ThirumurthyHarshaLeviMargaret. 2020. Political partisanship influences behavioral responses to governors’ recommendations for COVID-19 prevention in the United States. PNAS117 (39): 24144–53.
43.
HackerJacob S.PiersonPaul. 2002. Business power and social policy: Employers and the formation of the American welfare state. Politics & Society30 (2): 277–325.
44.
HenselLukasWitteMarcCariaA. StefanoFetzerThiemoFiorinStefanoGötzFriedrich M.GomezMargaritaHaushoferJohannesIvchenkoAndriyKraft-ToddGordonReutskajaElenaRothChristopherYoeliErezJachimowiczJon M.2022. Global behaviors, perceptions, and the emergence of social norms at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization193: 473–96.
HilbeJoseph M.2011. Negative Binomial Regression. 2nd ed.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
47.
HoltzDavidZhaoMichaelBenzellSeth G.CaoCathy Y.RahimianMohammad AminYangJeremyAllenJenniferCollisAvinashMoehringAlexSowrirajanTaraGhoshDipayanZhangYunhaoDhillonParamveer S.NicolaidesChristosEcklesDeanAralSinan. 2020. Interdependence and the cost of uncoordinated responses to COVID-19. PNAS117 (33): 19837–43.
48.
HuangXiaolinShaoXiaojianXingLiHuYushanSinDon D.ZhangXuekui. 2021. The impact of lockdown timing on COVID-19 transmission across US counties. EClinicalMedicine38: 101035.
LiMinqi. 2020. Profit, Accumulation, and Crisis in Capitalism. New York: Routledge.
56.
LiaoTim F.MaioFernando De. 2021. Association of social and economic inequality with coronavirus disease 2019 incidence and mortality across US counties. JAMA Network Open4 (1): e2034578.
57.
LiuYangMaoBeiLiangShuoYangJia WeiLuHai WenChaiYan HuaWangLanZhangLiLiQiu-hongZhaoLanHeYanGuXiao-longJiXiao-binLiLiJieZhi-junLiQiangLiXiang-yangLuHong-zhouZhangWen-hongSongYuan-linQuJie-mingXuJin-fu. 2020. Association between age and clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19. European Respiratory Journal55: 2001112.
58.
Lyon-CalloVincent. 2020. COVID and capitalism: A conversation with Richard Wolff. Rethinking Marxism32 (4): 570–88.
59.
MageshShrutiJohnDanielLiWei TseLiYuxiangMattingly-AppAidanJainSharadChangEric Y.OngkekoWeg M.2021. Disparities in COVID-19 outcomes by race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status: A systematic-review and meta-analysis. JAMA Network Open4 (11): e2134147.
60.
MarxKarl. 1990. Capital: A Critique of Political Economy, volume 1. London: Penguin Books.
61.
MarxKarl. 1991. Capital: A Critique of Political Economy, volume 3. London: Penguin Books.
62.
McLaughlinJohn M.KhanFaridPughSarahAnguloFrederick J.SchmittHeinz JosefIsturizRaul E.JodarLuisSwerdlowDavid L.2021. County-level predictors of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths in the United States: What happened, and where do we go from here?Clinical Infectious Diseases73 (7): E1814–21.
MollaloAbolfazlVahediBehzadRiveraKiara M.2020. GIS-based spatial modeling of COVID-19 incidence rate in the continental United States. Science of the Total Environment728: 138884.
66.
MorikawaMasayuki. 2021. Work-from-home productivity during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Japan. Economic Inquiry60 (2): 508–27.
67.
Nassif-PiresLuizaXavierLaura De LimaMastersonThomasNikiforosMichalisRios-AvilaFernando. 2020. Pandemic of Inequality. Public Policy Brief no. 149. Annandale-On-Hudson, NY: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Accessed at: https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/ppb_149.pdf.
Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). 2023b. Summary data for federal and state programs—whistleblower data. Accessed at: https://www.whistleblowers.gov/covid-19-data.
74.
PaglinoEugenioLundbergDielle J.ZhouZhenweiWassermanJoe A.RaquibRafeyaLuckAnneliese N.HempsteadKatherineBorJacobPrestonSamuel H.EloIrma T.StokesAndrew C.2023. Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022. Science Advances9 (25): eadf9742.
75.
PeiSenYamanaTeresa K.KandulaSasikiranGalantiMartaShamanJeffrey. 2021. Burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020. Nature598 (7880): 338–41.
76.
RathnayakaImalka WasanaKhanamRashedaRahmanMohammad Mafizur. 2023. The economics of COVID-19: A systematic literature review. Journal of Economic Studies50 (1): 49–72.
77.
SachsJeffrey D.Abdool KarimSalim S.AkninLaraAllenJosephBrosbølKirstenColomboFrancescaBarronGabriela CuevasEspinosaMaría FernandaGasparVitorGaviriaAlejandroHainesAndyHotezPeter J.KoundouriPhoebeLarraín BascuñánFelipeLeeJong-KooPateMuhammad AliRamosGabrielaReddyK. SrinathSerageldinIsmailThwaitesJohnVike-FreibergaVairaWangChenKhamadi WereMiriamXueLanBahadurChandrikaBottazziMaria ElenaBullenChrisLaryea-AdjeiGeorgeBen AmorYanisKaradagOzgeLafortuneGuillaumeTorresEmmaBarredoLaurenG.JulianaBartelsE.JoshiNeenaHellardMargaretHuynhUyen KimKhandelwalShwetaLazarusJeffrey V.MichieSusan. 2022. The Lancet Commission on Lessons for the Future From the COVID-19 Pandemic. The Lancet400 (10359): 1224–80.
78.
SellSusan K.WilliamsOwain D.2020. Health under capitalism: A global political economy of structural pathogenesis. Review of International Political Economy27 (1): 1–25.
TanAnnabel X.HinmanJessica A.Abdel MagidHoda S.NelsonLorene M.Odden.Michelle C.2021. Association between income inequality and county-level COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US. JAMA Network Open4 (5): e218799.
84.
TrivediMegh M.DasAnirudha. 2021. Did the timing of state mandated lockdown affect the spread of COVID-19 infection? A county-level ecological study in the United States. Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health54 (4): 238–44.
TsouHsiao-HuiKuoShu-ChenLinYu-HsuanHsiungChao A.ChiouHung-YiChenWei J.WuShiow-IngSytwuHuey-KangChenPau-ChungWuMeng-HsuanHsuYa-TingWuHsiao-YuLeeFang-JingShihShu-ManLiuDing-PingChangShan-Chwen. 2022. A comprehensive evaluation of COVID-19 policies and outcomes in 50 countries and territories. Scientific Reports12 (1): 8802.
VahabiNasimSalehiMasoudDuarteJulio D.MollaloAbolfazlMichailidisGeorge. 2021. County-level longitudinal clustering of COVID-19 mortality to incidence ratio in the United States. Scientific Reports11 (1): 3088.
93.
WallaceRobLiebmanAlexChavesLuis FernandoWallaceRodrick. 2020. COVID-19 and circuits of capital. Monthly Review72 (1): 1–15.
94.
WaltenburgMichelle A.VictoroffTristanRoseCharles E.ButterfieldMarileeJervisRachel H.FedakKristen M.GabelJulie A.FeldpauschAmandaDunneEileen M.AustinConnieAhmedFarah S.TubachSheriRheaCharlesKruegerAnnaCrumDavid A.VostokJohannaMooreMichael J.TurabelidzeGeorgeStoverDerryDonahueMatthewEdgeKarenGutierrezBernadetteKlineKelly E.MartzNicholeRajotteJames C.JulianErnestDiedhiouAbdoulayeRadcliffeRachelClaytonJoshua L.OrtbahnDustinCumminsJasonBarbeauBreeMurphyJuliaDarbyBrandyGraffNicholas R.DostalTia K. H.PrayIan W.TillmanCourtneyDittrichMichelle M.Burns-GrantGailLeeSoojiSpieckermanAlisaIqbalKashifGriffingSean M.LawsonAliciaMainzerHugh M.BealleAndreea E.EddingErikaArnoldKathryn E.RodriguezTomasMerkleSarahPettroneKristenSchlangerKarenLaBarKristinHendricksKateLasryArielleKrishnasamyVikramWalkeHenry T.RoseDale A.HoneinMargaret A., and COVID-19 Response Team. 2020. Update: COVID-19 among workers in meat and poultry processing facilities―United States, April–May 2020. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report69 (27): 887–92.
95.
WangYunLiuYingStruthersJamesLianMin. 2021. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States. Clinical Infectious Diseases72 (4): 643–51.
World Health Organization (WHO). 2023. WHO COVID-19 dashboard. Accessed at: https://covid19.who.int/.
102.
WuShishiNeillRachelFooChuan DeChuaAlvin QijiaJungAnne-SophieHaldaneVictoriaAbdallaSalma M.GuanWei-jieSinghSudhvirNordströmAndersLegido-QuigleyHelena. 2021. Aggressive containment, suppression, and mitigation of COVID-19: Lessons learnt from eight countries. The BMJ375: e067508.
103.
YoungKevin A.BanerjeeTarunSchwartzMichael. 2018. Capital strikes as a corporate political strategy: The structural power of business in the Obama era. Politics and Society46 (1): 3–28.
104.
ZhangCharlie H.SchwartzGary G.2020. Spatial disparities in coronavirus incidence and mortality in the United States: An ecological analysis as of May 2020. Journal of Rural Health36 (3): 433–45.
